The Importance of the Timing of Peak Oil

On 6 August 2008, the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest International Petroleum Monthly report, which tallies world oil production for a given month. The latest EIA production figures shown in any given report are usually for a monthly period ending two months before the release date of the report, so this latest issue contains data for May 2008. According to this latest report, world petroleum supply averaged 86.05 million barrels per day in May of this year, which is a new record according to the EIA. World crude plus condensate production during May averaged 74.48 million barrels per day according to the same report, which is again a new record, passing the May 2005 record of 74.266 million barrels per day. In addition, this week OPEC issued its Monthly Oil Market Report, which estimated that world oil supply in July 2008 averaged 87.37 million barrels per day – again, a sign of growing petroleum supply. The release of these figures may be a contributing factor in the continuing slide in the price of oil and petroleum products.

However, some analysts have taken exception to these numbers, asserting that they may be overly optimistic. Gail Tverberg, a member of the Oil Drum staff recently wrote an article which questioned the reliability of initial EIA estimates of world production (“May 2008 EIA Oil Production Record. Will It Too Be Revised Downward?”, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4386). She pointed out that these initial estimates are usually revised downward by the EIA as time passes, and noted discrepancies between EIA production figures for various countries versus what those countries stated as their actual production. She also pointed out the potential political motivations for the EIA to be less than accurate in telling what is actually going on with oil production. Others have analyzed the discrepancies between the EIA and OPEC numbers for specific countries and have noticed a rather fishy smell (see comments on today's “Drumbeat” section of the Oil Drum website). There is also at least one bit of anecdotal news that indicates that an oil exporting country is shorting its own citizens so that it can send more oil to the US.

I want to suggest (and I am not the only one suggesting this) that the present oil supply and oil market situation is being “gamed” by several powerful key players in order to give the false impression that there is no longer an oil supply “crisis.” This campaign of dishonesty is being aimed chiefly at the West, and specifically at the United States. Why the US? Because the US is still the most powerful nation on earth militarily, and because it is also still the world's most significant economic agent. That supremacy is increasingly resting on a foundation of deception, smoke and mirrors, but while it lasts, the US is a force to be reckoned with.

And this is a Presidential election year. The corporatist powers who actually control the governments of this country know how key a player an American president is in their plans, and will do all they can to install a president who is friendly to their interests. If the American people were to wake up to the actual precariousness of this nation and the magnitude of the mess our leaders have made for us, they might begin to demand the sort of radical changes that would threaten the corporatists.

To a lesser extent, the governments of some of the oil-producing countries are also interested in gaming the system, in order to prevent a large portion of Americans from having to suffer actual petroleum shortages, thus preventing the rise of an American neocon initiative to take over foreign oilfields the way Iraqi fields were seized.

All this means that it is more important than ever to search out the truth about present world oil production, so that we may know what to expect and be prepared to deal with it. I acknowledge a debt of gratitude to Jeffrey J. Brown, a registered Professional Geoscientist in the State of Texas, and to Dr. Samuel Foucher, a long-time oil production analyst. Because of their work and the efforts of others who posted valuable information on the Internet, I went from near-total ignorance of the true nature of our energy predicament to wide-awake alarm within the space of a few months. My awakening had been preceded by growing unease from 2005 to the beginning of 2007, like the unease of a sleep disturbed by an increasingly upset stomach. But it was in the first few months of 2007 that I truly came face to face with the reality of Peak Oil. That awareness has led me to some rather drastic lifestyle adjustments.

But Mr. Brown recently commented that the timing of the worldwide oil production peak is not as important as other issues which we are facing, such as the ongoing and accelerating decline in net world petroleum exports. Here I must respectfully disagree (and I invite him to correct any deficiency in my knowledge, since he knows much more about this than I do). Knowing the timing of the peak and the actual shape of the world oil production profile is very important, because the major controlling figures who run the global “official economy” are closely watching this very issue. I believe that many of them know that Peak Oil will be a severe threat to their status and the continuation of their economic empires, and that they also know that it's in their best financial interests to keep this knowledge from the masses for as long as possible. Therefore, as petroleum supplies become ever more constrained, they will continue to try to game the system, suppressing naturally-occurring market signals regarding supply and demand for as long as it's in their interests to do so. When they finally pull the wool from our eyes, we will surely be confronted by the sight of an economic system that's broken beyond repair for all but the very rich.

So we will need to devise other means for validating whether the world is in fact at or past peak. One bit of data that's still relatively reliable is the EIA Weekly Inventory Report of US commercial crude oil and petroleum product stocks. The EIA Weekly reports for the last three weeks have shown a steady decrease in finished gasoline stocks. This has been due to rising demand caused by lower prices. US crude oil inventories haven't moved from the 295 million barrel range. This seems to show that oil and gasoline prices have fallen because of a perception of reduced demand, and not because of any new supplies. Those who have skills in building complex mathematical models can come up with other means for determining the true state of world oil supply. And we can always look at obvious signs, such as news stories of refinery shutdowns or shortages around the world. Personally, I think we see the beginning of another price spike within the next month. One can't game the system forever. Keep your eyes open!

* * *

I want to start talking about preparations for a post-Peak world. I've been meaning to get onto this subject for a long time, but I keep getting distracted by juicy news stories from the oil patch. In my discussion, I intend to move from preparing yourself as a person to preparing your community (at least those closest to you). These thoughts are just what has occurred to me; others have thought much harder and more deeply, and for a longer time on this subject. As I find time, I will post links to some of their writings. One thing I will soon discuss is the use of appropriate technologies for a post-Peak life (i.e., should I buy solar panels? Should I buy a spinning wheel? How about a portable generator? and so on).

The first thing that occurs to me regarding a post-Peak life is facing the near-certainty that you will have to live such a life. Our economy and society have been built on certain assumptions – the assumptions of ever-increasing technological advancement, convenience, comfort, and prosperity.

These assumptions are about to be overturned.

But facing this reality is a very difficult thing to do for many people. One Peak Oil writer has compared the process of facing the threats of Peak Oil and climate change to Elizabeth Kubler-Ross's portrayal of the process of facing death, with its five stages: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Most of America seems to be in the denial stage, as seen in the sales of tabloid magazines at supermarkets, the viewers of reality TV series, and the willingness to listen to corporate media slaves repeating their masters' assertions that everything will be all right. Some people are angry – especially those who have a vested financial or political interest in suppressing the truth of our predicament. But there are also bargainers. I am an engineer and I can tell you that engineers are some of the biggest bargainers around. Their bargaining consists of the unshakable faith that technology will somehow save us from having to live on less, from having to live a more difficult life than we have been used to (Read some issues of the IEEE Spectrum to see what I mean). All I can say is, Dream on!

If one is willing to accept the probability that life is going to get much more difficult, then one can begin to take inventory of all the conveniences he or she enjoys right now due to technology and cheap energy. Then one can begin to make plans for living without some of these conveniences. For instance, living in a time of expensive natural gas or fuel oil might mean learning ways of living without either during the wintertime. Living in a world in which many of your needs must suddenly be supplied by the power of your own muscles is easier if you have prepared beforehand by getting in shape. In other words, the first preparation you can make is to bravely face the future, take inventory of all of its implications, and then begin to harden yourself to be able to cope with it.

Some practical steps might include the following:

1. Learn to commute by bicycle. By commuting I don't mean recreational rides, but rather, going to places you need to visit in order to do necessary weekly activities. Gradually increase the percentage of your commuting per week until it's over 75 percent of your total commuting.

2. Train your body to be comfortable with the thermostat of your house turned down to 60 degrees F or below.

3. Work out regularly to build your strength and endurance. Make your workouts something that you can do at home, without having to drive to a gym.

4. Regularly put yourself into situations in which you must do without your usual comforts. Go camping – in a tent, not in an RV – in all kinds of weather. Learn what works in such situations, and what doesn't. If you feel really adventurous, go bicycle camping, and skip the drive altogether!

5. Learn to live on half of your present income, in the expectation that you may one day be forced to do so.

See if you can add a few suggestions of your own to this list. And tell yourself that you will learn to succeed in facing this challenge. Difficulty does not have to equal hopelessness.

The Numbers Tell The Story, Part 2

Just read this on yesterday's "Drumbeat" section at the Oil Drum website:

Retail Chain Store Closures in 2008:
Ann Taylor closing 117 stores nationwide.

Eddie Bauer to close more stores after closing 27 stores

Cache, a women’s retailer is closing 20 to 23 stores this year.

Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug, Catherines closing 150 stores nationwide

Talbots, J. Jill closing stores. ... all 78 of its kids and men's stores plus another 22 underperforming stores.

Gap Inc. closing 85 stores

Foot Locker to close 140 stores

Wickes Furniture is going out of business

Levitz - going out of business... The retailer dates back to 1910.

Zales, Piercing Pagoda plans to close 82 ...followed by closing another 23

Disney Store owner has the right to close 98 stores.

Home Depot store closings 15... It is the first time the ..has ever closed a flagship store.

CompUSA (CLOSED).

Macy's - 9 stores closed

Movie Gallery – video rental company plans to close 400 ...in addition to the 520 locations the video rental

chain closed last fall as part of bankruptcy.

Pacific Sunwear - 153 Demo stores closing

Pep Boys - 33 stores of auto parts supplier closing

Sprint Nextel - 125 retail locations

J. C. Penney, Lowe's and Office Depot are all scaling back

Ethan Allen Interiors: plans to close 12 of 300 stores to cut costs.

Wilsons the Leather Experts – closing 158 stores

Bombay Company: to close all 384 U.S.-based Bombay Company stores.

KB Toys closing 356 stores

Dillard's Inc. will close another six stores this year.

Another item: US Bank Failures in 2008 (so far):
25 January - Douglass National Bank ($58 million in assets)

7 March - Hume Bank ($18.7 million in assets)

9 May - ANB Financial NA ($2.1 billion in assets)

30 May - First Integrity Bank ($54.7 million in assets)

11 July - IndyMac Bancorp ($32.01 billion in assets)

1 August - First Priority Bank ($259 million in assets)

This is only a partial list of failed banks. A more complete list can be found at the FDIC website, http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html.

The money well seems to be running dry...

A Portrait of Urban Beauty

Last week I mentioned an upcoming bicycle tour to visit some backyard chicken raising operations in my city, and I promised to share pictures I took on that tour. I did indeed participate in the tour, and I will give a brief report of the event in this post. But first, I want to mention a few news items relating to the oil situation.

The June 2008 edition of the full free version of the International Energy Agency's monthly Oil Market Report was published on Monday or Tuesday of last week (I should keep better track of dates; I promise to do better next time). This was around ten days later than the IEA had promised, which was a bit unusual. (Their next report is due on 12 August, by the way.) According to page 16 of the report, global petroleum liquid supply in June increased by 285,000 barrels per day from the previous month to reach 86.5 million barrels per day. This increase is said to have come largely from OPEC, since non-OPEC output slipped by 65,000 barrels per day during the same period. According to the IEA, therefore, world petroleum production is still growing.

However, the IEA reports have several known weaknesses. First, in computing daily and monthly production values for “petroleum liquids,” they count not only crude oil and condensates, but also tar sands, extra-heavy oil and biofuels. Secondly, their initial estimates for a particular month's production are usually revised downwards as time passes. The world crude oil and petroleum liquids production figures published by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) are usually at least a million barrels per day lower than those published by the IEA for a given month. The EIA figures show that world petroleum liquids production has not risen significantly above 85 million barrels per day from 2005 until March of this year.

But the most significant weakness of the IEA figures is that at least a few well-placed oil industry experts have pointed out that the reliability of the IEA figures depends on the good faith of oil producing countries in truthfully reporting their production numbers. Some of these experts believe that some of the reporting countries have exaggerated their production figures this year. A case in point is Matt Simmons, president of Simmons and Company International, an energy investment banking company, and oil industry expert. He has objected to claims by Saudi Arabia that their country is producing oil at the levels claimed in the IEA OMR. He has stated that there is no evidence that Saudi production is as high as the Saudis claim (9.5 to 9.7 million barrels per day), and that actual Saudi production is 1.5 million barrels lower than claimed. In his view, world petroleum production is now beginning to falter. (Sources: CNBC Video, “Peak Oil Theory,” 31 July 2008, http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=809266970; “Business Matters: Surviving the Oil Crisis,” Global Public Media, http://globalpublicmedia.com/business_matters_surviving_the_oil_crisis)

Accusations about falsely high production numbers were also made last year by Henry Groppe of Groppe, Long and Littel, a petroleum and chemical consulting firm. In an interview with David Strahan of Global Public Media (“IEA to Blame for $100 Oil Spike,” 16 December 2007, http://globalpublicmedia.com/groppe_iea_oil_spike), Mr. Groppe asserted that OPEC typically overstates its production figures by up to 2 million barrels per day when reporting its production figures to the IEA. If accusations by these men are true (and in the case of Matt Simmons, the accusations may be rather easy to check simply by examining the IEA OMR figures and doing some arithmetic), this has serious implications. First, this may mean that world oil production has indeed peaked and is now in decline, as stated in the German Energy Watch Group report on oil supplies which was published last October. It also means that reporting agencies and national governments may be trying to keep that fact from public view for as long as possible.

There is an interesting recent news item which seems to bear out this suspicion. On 28 July, an article appeared in the Saudi Gazette whose headline read, “Saudi Aramco Denies Shortage of Fuel to Rural Areas,” (http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentID=2008072812923). Apparently, farmers and truck drivers in rural areas of Saudi Arabia have begun to experience diesel fuel shortages after Saudi Arabia promised recently to raise its global production and exports to world markets. The link between these two situations may be that Saudi production is constrained and cannot grow, and that in order to boost petroleum exports they are having to deny fuel to some of their own citizens. This is rather like an addict selling his own blood to pay his bills.

Lastly, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the following words on 31 July, during a press conference: “Producers, unfortunately, have not made the investments necessary to keep pace with this growing demand. Because production capacity and investment has been curtailed over the last decade, supply now barely offsets declining production in older fields, let alone meets new demand.” (Source: http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp1107.htm) There are more and more signs appearing which tell us that worldwide petroleum production has peaked, even though oil prices have pulled back a bit recently.

Concerning oil prices, I wrote about price volatility or “bumpiness” during the peaking period in my post titled, “A Bumpier Plateau.” I believe that we will see several rather rapid cycles of price spikes, falling demand because people can't afford petroleum products, falling price which fools people into consuming more petroleum, and re-appearing price spikes because of revived demand. It will be rather like a man who's out of shape and has coronary artery disease, who has severe chest pain whenever he exerts himself, but who feels fine while resting, and who, while resting, fools himself into believing that he's fine – even though the bouts of chest pain grow more severe and occur at lower thresholds of exertion as time passes. We had better stop fooling ourselves, before it's too late.

* * *

Now for backyard chickens. I was introduced to this subject by listening to podcasts of episodes of Deconstructing Dinner, a regular radio show produced by Kootenay Co-Op Radio in Canada. Deconstructing Dinner discusses the many disadvantages of our present globalized, agribusiness-dominated food system, and explores alternatives that can be implemented by ordinary people. One of their series is titled, “Farming In The City,” and it explores various aspects of urban agriculture. Recently they have been covering what could be called “the urban chicken-raising movement,” and they have featured guest appearances by a radio character named Bucky Buckaw, who also has a weekly radio show on Radio Boise (http://www.radioboise.org/sagebrush/bucky/).

Listening to these podcasts piqued my interest, since they pointed out the fragility of our present food system and its vulnerability to the energy and resource shortages that will exist in a post-Peak world. I began to think to myself, “I've had a dog and a few cats as pets during my life. Why not try a chicken or two?” An urban agriculture group in our city was hosting a chicken-raising class and backyard coop bicycle tour, so I joined in. Now that I've seen and heard a bit, I still don't know if I'm ready to take the plunge into chicken-rearing. But as Bucky Buckaw would say, “I had a good time” learning about chickens.

And here are some pictures of a typical chicken-raising house. Note how not only are occupants raising chickens, but they have transformed an ugly urban lot into a place of nutritious beauty within the space of less than a year.

The Replacement of Petroleum Slaves

The advent of Peak Oil means that the amount of energy available to our modern society will soon begin to diminish. This diminishment will cause a diminishing of economic activity. Oil and the energy derived from oil have allowed each of us to do so much more than humans in earlier, exclusively human- and animal-powered times, and the things we do can be done much more quickly. Today after work I had to stop at a store several miles out of my way home. Because I am a bicycle commuter, a journey of 20 miles took nearly two hours. It might have taken nearly as long in a car because of traffic and signals, but had I been racing against a car whose driver was free of such restrictions, I would have lost badly. The expedition of Lewis and Clark in the early 19^th century was a transcontinental voyage across North America that took over two years to complete. By contrast, I can book a flight on US Airways that will take me from Los Angeles to New York City in 5 hours and 30 minutes.

Some have tried to quantify the energy density of crude oil in terms of the amount of human labor required to replace the energy found in a barrel of oil. Nate Hagens, one of the editors at the Oil Drum website, has calculated that one barrel of oil generates the energy of up to 12.5 years of human-powered work. Since the average American uses over 25 barrels of oil per year, he or she annually uses the energy that would be generated by over 300 slaves. If natural gas and coal use are also included in the picture, the total annual energy used by each American rises to the equivalent of over 700 slaves. (Source: “A Closer Look At Oil Futures,” http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/9/2/171333/1102; also check out “What Is A Human Being Worth (in terms of Energy) by Luis DeSousa, http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4315)

This energy is what is available for personal use. But the incredible energy of petroleum has also been harnessed by businesses to provide goods and services at costs that are low both for the producers and consumers of these goods and services. This is what enabled the replacement of thousands of union workers in early 20^th century factories with automated, computerized assembly lines controlled by programmable logic controllers, guided by a small handful of human operators monitoring man-machine interfaces. It is what also enabled the outsourcing of skilled labor from the United States to countries where wages have been historically low and benefits have been nonexistent. Were you a head of a business in a country whose workers are organizing to demand higher wages and benefits? Until recently, you could respond to such a situation by building factories in Third World countries with oppressed populations, thus lowering your business costs and maximizing your profits. Cheap petroleum-based transport was an inexpensive bridge directly connecting you to your Third World factories, the cost of shipping goods being such a small portion of the total cost of manufacture.

But now this globalist model of big business is beginning to break down, as has been described here on this blog and in many other places. Yet big businesses are still committed to maximizing their profits while minimizing their costs. Where will they turn for pools of cheap labor to replace Third World workers now rendered out of touch by high transportation costs?

I believe I saw some of the answer two weeks ago, when I bought the August 2008 issue of Mother Jones magazine (www.motherjones.com). That issue has a series of articles about our present American prison system, under the general title Slammed. The articles describe how the present justice and prison system disproportionately targets poor people and minorities; how private corporations have taken over the prison system in many states and are turning prisons into for-profit operations; how private prisons are being used to detain illegal immigrants, including asylum seekers, pending deportation or asylum hearings; and how states such as Georgia are outsourcing their probation programs to private companies who charge a monthly fee to people who are placed on probation.

The Slammed article which is most relevant to this post is titled, “Lingerie and Bullwhips: A Peek At the Fruits of American Prison Labor,” and it describes how many large American corporations are lining up to use prison labor in the manufacture or packaging of their products – products such as beef, milk, eggs, chicken products, Starbucks coffee, Nintendo games, brooms, brushes, bullwhips, Microsoft mice and software, school juice boxes, airplane parts and other material for the US military, Victoria's Secret and JCPenny lingerie, dental instruments, entire Wal-Mart stores (!), and telemarketing services, to name just a few things. Inmates are paid anywhere from pennies a day to minimum wage (if they're lucky) for jobs which would command many times the minimum wage on the outside.

These prisoners have no rights, even after their release from prison. 48 states prohibit prisoners from voting, 30 states prohibit felons on probation from voting, and 8 states prohibit certain felons from voting for life. Thirteen percent of black men currently are denied the right to vote. Therefore, these people have little say anymore in altering the prison system through political action, no matter what inequities they witnessed while in prison, no matter how they were exploited by corporate interests while in prison.

And the rich and powerful in this country are doing their best to expand the ranks of people whose rights have been permanently stripped from them. Consider the growth of private prison corporations over the years; Corrections Corporation of America saw its stock price climb from $8 a share in 1992 to over $30 in 2000. In 2005, CCA paid over $3 million to five different firms to lobby the Federal government. Dick Cheney's son-in-law was a lobbyist for CCA, and also had oversight of government discretionary payments to CCA while serving in the Federal government. CCA is typical of the large and growing number of private prison corporations who seek to grow their businesses via the Federal “War on Terror” and the “War on Drugs.” Children are now being sent to private prisons and private detention camps run under inhumane and dangerous conditions, without adequate oversight or redress for any wrongs suffered while they are locked up. (Sources: “Corrections Corporation of America,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrections_Corporation_of_America; “The Truth About Private Prisons,” Jenni Gainsborough, Alternet, 15 December 2003, http://www.alternet.org/story/17392/)

All of these things may be leading to a situation best described by “The Jigsaw Man,” a 1967 science fiction story by Larry Niven. In that story, medical science had perfected ways to greatly extend human life through organ transplants. This led the rulers of society to decree that people convicted of capital crimes should be required to donate all their organs to medicine after their execution, in order to repay their debt to society. But the demand for organs grew so much that lawmakers were forced to continually re-define “capital crime” to insure a steady supply of recycled body parts. The protagonist of the story thus finds himself sentenced to death for breaking traffic laws.

Such a story may have seemed far-fetched in 1967, but it is all too real now – not only in such instances as stem-cell research, but in the depriving of rights for ever-larger segments of the American population while reducing these people to a state of de-facto slavery, as petroleum slaves are replaced with slaves of another kind in order to help Western businesses maximize profits while reducing costs. As some might say, if you're not outraged, you're not paying attention.

* * *

I harvested all the fava beans in my garden two weeks ago, and have been drying them using my truck dashboard as a makeshift solar dryer. This is possible because I don't drive to work anymore. My hope is to use the beans as part of planting my fall garden. I'll let you all know how it works.

Tomorrow, I will be participating in a bike tour of various backyard chicken-raising operations in this city. I'll try to take pictures; hopefully you'll all be able to see them next week. Next week I will also begin to talk more about personal preparations for a post-Peak world. See you then!

"...Most of us spend our lives as prey, economically and psychologically"

Those of you who read my profile know that I have another blog, TH in SoC, where I discuss the unhealthy dynamics of churches classified as abusive, as well as how I believe those unhealthy dynamics have infected modern American evangelicalism. Having gone through an abusive church experience and having had my eyes opened to the true nature of that experience, I believe that I have become better equipped to recognize the dynamics of power abuse in secular settings as well, including the present American political scene. This has contributed to my understanding of the true nature of our present crisis and enslavement to a political/economic system that is breaking, as I have come to recognize the games played by those who seek power in order to make their fellow humans a prey. (One example: I have now come to the conclusion that President Bush is a clinical narcissist, as are some of those who ran in the Presidential primaries this year.)

As I was doing research for my last post on TH in SoC, I was thus intrigued by a blog I discovered, Gale Warnings (http://galewarnings.blogspot.com). The author of this blog discusses issues of abuse of power from the perspective of the interplay between victim and narcissistic abuser - often a one-on-one interplay, which is how abuse is often perpetrated and experienced between those who misuse their authority and their victims. But her focus also extends to the general societal problem of how to live well without becoming a victim, as stated in her "About Me" statement:

"I'm a former idealist turned 'defensive pessimist' who has concluded, after living on two coasts, two continents, and an island, that most of us spend our lives as prey, economically and psychologically. Awareness is the key to understanding this; but once we understand it, we may transcend it, choosing, when we can, to be neither prey nor predator."

This is a bold and noble goal - to choose not to become the prey of others ("You were bought with a price. Don’t become bondservants of men." - 1 Corinthians 7:23); and to choose not to become a predator, wherein lies damnation. How to live as neither predator nor prey is a puzzle to which the righteous will have to give increasing attention in the coming days, as Peak Oil and other resource constraints become more severe, as our present system begins to break down more rapidly, and as the rich masters of the present system resort to more desperate measures to keep their system running and to force the rest of us into continued reliance on that system.

I'd like to recommend Gale Warnings for those looking for another perspective on the times we are now facing, and I hope the author will be able to provide needed insights regarding some of the issues of life on the downside of Hubbert's Peak.

I'd like to say just a word about the focus of my blog, The Well Run Dry. While I sometimes venture into technical discsussions about the geological or production aspects of peak oil, I am not an expert. I won't pretend to dispense gems of wisdom along that line, although if something occurs to me, I will write about it. Nor will I delve deeply into grand analyses of our society's unpreparedness for the coming times or steps that could be taken to prepare. I believe that the time for grand societal initiatives is past, and that we have wasted an opportunity. The focus of my writing will be on individual preparation.

And regarding individual preparation, I won't be writing about farming a few acres of land miles away from other people, since I live in a city. Rather, I will be talking about the small steps I am taking to build a resilient community consisting of a few blocks - or one street - of well-connected neighbors. Much of what I talk about won't be glamorous, but very mundane. Yet I will try to show its relevance to preparing for a post-peak world. I'll tell you what works - and I'll tell you what flops grandly.

I'll also tell you about the attempts by the rich to turn us "little people" into prey as I find relevant news items. This is important, because preparing for a post-peak world consists of building a safety net of alternative systems to replace the system that is breaking. This must be done at an individual level. But there are powerful individuals teaming up with governments to hinder the building of alternative systems. It is necessary therefore to be ever vigilant.

A Bumpier Plateau

02-28-2023 Note: I have noticed that this post is one of the most popular and well-read posts on this blog.  However, this post is rather out of date, so it deserves a bit of clarification.  The 2008 Energy Watch Group report titled, "Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook" correctly estimated that the peak of global conventional oil production had already passed.  However, the total volume of petroleum liquids production was able to increase due to the extraction of unconventional oil by means such as hydrofracking.  In 2023, the potential for continued increases in petroleum liquids production seems to have been exhausted.  In the middle years of the first decade of the 21st century, there were many voices which predicted that the passing of the global peak of conventional oil production would trigger the collapse of industrial civilization and the onset of the "zombie apocalypse."  

These predictions clearly have not come true.  This is partly due to the boost in unconventional petroleum liquid production which occurred from 2008 onward.  It is also due to the rapid expansion in availability of renewable electricity technologies which has occurred over the last decade.  This expansion has been accompanied by a steep drop in the price of renewable energy technologies.  The most recent publications by the Energy Watch Group paint a very bright picture of the ability of renewables to meet all of the world's current energy demand and to replace fossil fuels in the industrial world's energy use mix.  So it doesn't appear that there will be a zombie apocalypse triggered by the collapse of global energy supplies.  This may disappoint a number of catastrophists, skinheads, far-Right "preppers" and other similar types, but c'est la vie.  My clarification may also take the thrill out of reading this post, but readers from now on can enjoy the milder pleasure of reading this post as a bit of interesting history.  

Over the last two weeks the price of WTI crude oil has dropped from around $146 per barrel to just over $129 per barrel. This is partly due to the most recent EIA Weekly Report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3 million barrels during the week ending 11 July 2008. Also, total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels during the same period, on top of a 900,000 barrel increase during the previous week. These numbers seemed to confirm the pronouncements of many market “analysts” stating that a slowing U.S. economy would reduce overall petroleum demand, driving prices lower. Lower oil and gasoline prices also led to a Wall Street stock rally late this week. The financial news media headlines covering these developments sounded a celebratory note, as if to say, “See! Things aren't that bad after all. We're returning to normal. Happy times are not far away!”

I have a different interpretation of these events; namely, that we are experiencing one of the aspects of life on the “bumpy plateau.” For those who study peak oil and theorize about how it will play out, the bumpy plateau has two meanings. The first meaning has to do with absolute quantities of petroleum liquids produced worldwide on a daily basis. Many peak oil watchers have theorized that as the world reached a peak of oil production, the peak would not be sharply defined, but would consist of several months of production fluctuating in small “bumpy” increments around a maximum average “plateau” number, before beginning to irreversibly decline. That is what we have been seeing since May 2005, as we have bumped a few percent or so above and below an average figure of 85 million barrels of petroleum liquids per day. The major oil companies and many national governments are struggling desperately to increase this number significantly, yet are failing, because the new oil projects they bring on stream can't offset production declines from old fields that are now at a point of exhaustion.

But the second bumpy aspect of the bumpy plateau has to do with price. When worldwide daily petroleum production cannot grow, the price of oil rises, because the worldwide “official” economy is based on the expectation of continuous growth at a certain percentage per year. Oil is the foundation of the majority of that economy, and no business or government wants to shrink, so corporations and institutions who want the oil begin to offer ever-larger sums of money for that oil. But as the things made with that oil become too expensive for the end users – little people like you and me – to afford, the demand for products made with oil drops, because people are forced to do without. Thus the price of oil begins to drop – even though the underlying fact of limited oil supply hasn't changed.

Human nature being what it is, most people don't grasp the significance of the original rise in the oil price. That price rise should serve as a signal and a wake-up call telling us that it is time to make a permanent shift to a lifestyle and a society that doesn't rely on oil, a society that is learning to live well on less. Most people, including the masters of the present global economy, are not receptive to this message because they only think in the short term. They will doubtless think that the recent drop in petroleum prices means that our present oil “crisis” is purely temporary. The drop in price will therefore spur more consumption, driving demand back up and causing another rise in prices to a level which again reduces demand, driving the price down again, and kicking off another price rise cycle. Each price spike in the cycle is higher than the last, and each price drop is shallower than the last as time passes.

I believe I saw a personal example of short-term thinking this week. For the last few months I have seen fewer and fewer large SUV's and monster trucks on the road. But two days ago as I was waiting for the bus, I saw someone driving what looked like a new Chrysler SUV; I think it's called an “Aspen.” If you look it up on line, you'll find that it comes with either a 4.7 liter, 303 horsepower engine, or a 5.7 liter, 335 horsepower HEMI engine. The thing's as big as a Chevy Suburban! You can have one new for around $32,000 if you want one. But why would anyone want such a thing at a time like this?

This particular SUV went by me so fast that I couldn't see the face of the person driving it, but I have to wonder what was going through the person's head when they bought it. Had the mainstream media in this country done such a good job of turning this supposedly adult American into an unreflecting, impulsive child? And what does this say about the Chrysler Corporation, that at a time of constrained oil supply and spiraling gasoline prices, when people are resorting to desperate measures to unload their Suburbans and Excursions and Yukons and Expeditions and Tahoes, Chrysler comes out with a brand new SUV? They deserve to go bankrupt.

What's needed during this journey along the bumpy plateau is a long view, an ability to grasp the big picture of what's going on. This is an important part of the process of preparing for a more difficult future. The fact that the crisis may ease somewhat at times does not mean that the crisis is temporary. Those who are wise will remember this, and undertake the necessary steps to learn to live more simply, to harden their bodies to do difficult things and to endure adversity, and to explore all their options for preparing for the coming times. As time passes, those who refuse to prepare will be left with fewer and fewer options, until at last their options are bitter.

Speaking of hardening oneself, my commute to work used to consist of riding the light rail to a bus stop, then switching to bus over a hilly two-lane road route, and riding my bike the last mile and a half to work. The evening commute consisted of riding the bus over the same hilly two-lane road from my office to the morning bus stop, then riding my bike home. Total miles per day on the bike were around ten. But when gas prices went over $3.75 or so per gallon, I found that the bus bike racks were often full, and I began to have to ride a lot farther. It seems that many people are discovering alternative transportation, as many buses now have full bike racks in the morning, no matter which route one wants to take.

But riding more has been good for me. When I first started riding the hilly roads between the light rail stop and my office, I hated it. On particularly steep portions of the road, I would get off and push the bike uphill – while young men on racers and pretty, athletic women passed me or went screaming down the opposite side of the road. I remember one afternoon when a smart-aleck guy rode past me shouting “My gears are lower than yours!” as I was walking my bike uphill.

I suppose I could blame my softness on age; after all, to quote a poet I read a while ago, “Time grates my life and yours to sand.” But I'm not that old, and I refuse to act even as old as I am. So for the last two months, I've been forcing myself to ride over that blasted road both ways, and for the last two weeks I have been able to pedal the whole way in the morning without getting off the bike. And on the return trip, I twice pedaled all the way from my office to the light rail station without getting off. My body, which used to protest, “Help! I'm dying!” now takes hills with the attitude that it ain't nothin' but a thing... I've even left a few riders behind. Now I'm racking up at least 100 miles a week on my bike, and my truck is used mainly as a place to dry vegetables (I got the idea from Sharon Astyk's blog).

I'll leave you with a picture of some alternative transportation, for those who are interested and who might be short on cash. It's a bargain, but I don't know how well it handles hills.

Pavlov's Politics

Ivan Petrovich Pavlov was a Russian physiologist, psychologist and physician who lived from 1849 to 1936. He is famous for his investigations of conditioned reflexes in animals, which arose from his observation that dogs who were habitually given food coated with chili powder tended to salivate when they saw the food coming, before it actually entered their mouths. Through a series of experiments he learned to induce salivation in dogs by presenting various signals that accompanied the feeding of the dogs. Thus he was able to “train” dogs to salivate by doing such things as ringing a bell or blowing a whistle. Other scientists applied his research to human psychology, deducing that humans could be trained to produce conditional reflexes or responses to events or triggers that often had nothing to do with the response produced. One such scientist, William Sargant, was part of a CIA research program in brainwashing and mind control that was carried out in the 1950's and 1960's. And the dogs originally used by Pavlov in his experiments became famous in a wry sort of way. To call someone a “Pavlov's dog” is to accuse that person of merely reacting to a situation rather than using critical thinking.

The American political process has largely become Pavlovian. Average Americans are being treated like Pavlov's dogs by the powers that be, from the corporate interests who really run things to the leaders of both major parties and the media outlets who provide us with “news.” There was a time, not very long ago, when the two parties actually stood on two sides of many important issues, and the media sympathetic to one side presented a message that was clearly different from the media voice of the other side. On the Right were Nixon, Jesse Helms, big business, defenders of the status quo, and those who were intolerant of people of other cultures and races. On the other hand were the Kennedy and post-Kennedy Democrats, the environmentalists, the radicals, the challengers of big business injustice and those rock musicians who were politically outspoken.

But the dangerous voices of the 1960's that threatened the status quo of corporate America were gradually co-opted and corporatized. And the very definitions of “Left” and “Right” were subtly changed to remove any threat to the major corporate interests. This re-definition was carried out in earnest during the 1980's and 1990's, and it involved two things: first, changing the meaning of “Left” and “Right” to meanings that posed no threat to the entrenched corporate interests controlling the largest sectors of the global economy; and secondly, the use of the media to heavily and constantly push this new “Left” and new “Right” on the American public until they accepted these as the actual and legitimate “Left” and “Right.”

This is clearly seen in the case of the Right. Those who preach Biblical morality, otherworldliness, simple living and the Sermon on the Mount have always posed a threat to established interests, from the days of the Civil War to the Civil Rights struggle of the 1960's. Therefore spokesmen such as James Dobson, the Moral Majority and the Family Research Council have worked to define Christianity and the Religious Right solely in terms of opposing sexual immorality, voting Republican and being patriotic – a much safer definition which does not threaten big business. Dobson and his associates have also attacked any Christians who suggest that perhaps we should widen our focus beyond sexual morality to include opposition to big business practices which harm the environment or poor people. This has led many on the Left to say, rather accurately, that the only issue about which the Right cares is sex.

But this accusation can also be leveled at the Left. Leftism used to mean advocacy of equal rights for all peoples of all ethnic groups; protection of the environment even if the price of such protection is that we must live more simply; restricting the power of corporations to prevent them from turning into monopolies or oligarchies; restricting the power and reach of the government; guaranteeing every citizen access to a free, participatory democracy, including the right to have one's voice heard by a free and independent press; and protecting the poor of the world from becoming victims of the rich.

But the corporate masters of American society noticed that many on the Left had become turned off to the religion and mores of the Right. So they began pushing a definition of Leftism solely as opposition to the religion and sexual morality preached by the Right. Thus, while actual progress in civil rights for minorities has stalled from the time of Reagan onward, the Left still insists that great progress in civil rights is being made, because of the fact that movies like Brokeback Mountain are now being made. Unfortunately, Brokeback Mountain isn't doing a lot of good for a number of black men now on death row or serving harsh sentences in various American prisons for crimes they didn't commit. Brokeback Mountain won't bring back any of the unarmed young black men gunned down by the NYPD over the last several years. Leftism has been redefined as the rejection of all sexual mores, the granting of permission to indulge in any sort of sexual desire, the bad-mouthing of biblical Christianity, and the abandonment of all standards of public decency, especially in the media. As with the re-definition of the Right, this re-definition of the Left does not threaten big business.

The final strategy used by these corporate masters has been to turn both the Democrats and the Republicans into mere empty symbols. The symbols may look different, but that means almost nothing, since both parties promote mostly the same policies. The Republican symbol is constructed on a foundation of memories of the Cold War and the struggle against “godless communism,” and it consists of a decorated war hero wrapped in an American flag, chewing tobacco and spitting while flexing a bicep tattooed with a cross or fish sign and declaring that he will “keep America strong!” This symbol is designed to produce a Pavlovian response at the voting booth among NASCAR-watching, Ford or Chevy truck-driving, beer-drinking high school dropout good ole' boys.

The Democrat symbol is constructed on memories of the 1960's and early 1970's, on memories of the Kennedy influence and the times when the Democrats were actually advocates of the little guy. It consists of a black man or a white woman, defined as “progressive” because they believe in “alternative spirituality,” they are “empathetic,” they are not perceived as evangelical conservatives, they support a “woman's right to choose,” they are vegetarian (maybe!) and they are the first of their kind to achieve high office. This symbol is also designed to produce a Pavlovian response at the voting booth. It worked quite well in 2006, when the Republicans showed themselves for what they really were – nothing more than the greedy, corrupt servants of a corporatocracy. We Americans knew we had been hoodwinked into an unjust war, and that we had been made into victims of a big business feeding frenzy, and many of us actually believed in the symbol of the Democrats as agents of change. This is what enabled the Democratic takeover of both houses of Congress. The only trouble is that events since then have proven that the Democrats are much bigger on talk than action.

The 2008 presidential election has degenerated into a battle between symbols, and “news” analysis and coverage of the campaigns has focused only on the effectiveness of these symbols. In the Democratic primary, one symbol (the one with the blond hair) tried to tear the other symbol apart (the one with the dark skin). It was fairly obvious to many that Hillary Clinton was really only a symbol, and that her entire campaign was a gamble that she would be an effective Pavlovian symbol (“Vote for me because I am a woman! A vote for me is a vote for progress, for that very reason!). John McCain is also nothing more than a symbol (Vote for me because I am a decorated Vietnam vet! The world is a dangerous place, and you need a tough guy in office!). I had begun to hope that Obama would be something more than a symbol, but recent news coverage of his shift to the “middle” on key policy issues has begun to erode my hopes.

The problem is, as I have stated before, that the global “official” economy which dominates the world is an unjust system which is now in the process of breaking due to the worldwide end of cheap oil. Yet while that system still exists and is in any way viable, its masters actively fight against anyone who seeks to create a safety net of alternative systems. Examples of this include automobile-based transportation, which for decades was pushed by rich corporations such as the Big Three automakers and the American oil companies. Now this system is breaking down, and the evidence is that more and more people cannot afford the money to use it. But there are few alternatives and they are difficult or dangerous to use, thanks to long-standing opposition to these alternatives from the auto and oil industries and by such people as former Republican congressman Tom DeLay, who fought against a light rail system for the city of Houston, Texas.

Other alternatives which are being opposed by vested corporate interests include small farms, which provide a viable option to factory-farm food which is becoming more expensive due to increasing energy costs, and is increasingly being recalled due to dangerous disease outbreaks. Urban self-sufficiency is under attack, as large agribusinesses persuade Federal and state departments of agriculture to oppose allowing people to keep backyard animals such as chickens, forcing them to rely on the factory food/supermarket distribution chain instead. NAFTA is yet another attack on our ability to take care of ourselves, yet another means of enabling large corporations to virtually enslave people in low-wage jobs without an adequate safety net of small businesses to which these people could turn.

I could go on and on with examples. The point is that what we need now in a President is someone who will protect us from the corporatocracy and who will not get in the way when local citizens try to disentangle themselves from this breaking system. I knew that Hillary Clinton and John McCain support the evil status quo, no matter how they try as symbols to portray themselves. The viciousness of their attacks on Obama made me think that perhaps he was someone who would actually upset the status quo and protect small Americans from big business.

But now he is reconsidering his earlier opposition to NAFTA; now he is willing to grant prosecution immunity to telecom companies who spied on Americans as part of the “War on Terror”; he has supported a Congressional bill that would give expanded wiretapping powers to the government; and he seems to be backing away from an immediate, swift withdrawal of troops from Iraq. In short, he is starting to look like the sort of candidate who would pose no danger to corporate interests.

If he's trying to get my vote, this is a dangerous strategy. I am black and I am an evangelical Christian; yet when I need an airline pilot, an optometrist or a surgeon, I care far less about his religion or skin color than I care about his qualifications. I'm not really thrilled about voting for Obama just because he's black. After all, Robert Mugabe is also black, as was Idi Amin. I'm not saying that Obama is as bad as these two; I'm just making a point. I can't understand the women who rabidly supported Hillary just because she was a woman (maybe the fact that I'm a guy has something to do with my lack of understanding.) Don't these women remember Jezebel? (1 Kings 21:23; 2 Kings 9:35-37)

At this dangerous and dicey juncture in American history, I care far less about a candidate's value as a symbol than I care about whether the candidate understands what needs to be done, and what that candidate will or will not do. I have been fooled too many times by people who sold themselves to me as symbols; I'm tired of people trying to fool me yet again. In 2004, this was also the view of 83 million people who were eligible to vote, yet who chose not to because they were tired of being treated like Pavlov's dogs.

Sources:

• “Obama Starts Moving To The Middle,” Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 3 July 2008, http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/369495_meansonline06.html

• “Memo to Obama: Moving to the Middle is for Losers,” Real Clear Politics, 1 July 2008, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/memo_to_obama_moving_to_the_mi.html

• “Bird Flu: Officials Warn About Poultry Grown Outdoors,” KATU News, 14 March 2006, http://www.katu.com/news/3642286.html

• “Are Backyard Chickens Causing Bird Flu? Why a Ban of Backyard Fowl Would Be Ineffective in Preventing Bird Flu,” About.Com, http://infectiousdiseases.about.com/od/petslivestockandgame/a/backyard_chick.htm

• “Tom Delay,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_delay

• “Ivan Pavlov,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Pavlov#Reflex_system_research