Monday, March 8, 2021

φρόνιμος καί ἀκέραιος

This week I find myself very busy with the kind of work that pays the bills, so I decided yesterday to postpone the next post in my series of posts on Gene Sharp's book From Dictatorship to Democracy.  Writing those posts involves a fairly heavy amount of research, and while I do not mind the research (indeed, it is what makes for good posts!), I am crunched for time at least this week, and possibly next week as well.

However, I did find today an unexpected source of both inspiration and instruction to those who seek nonviolently to spread disruptive, yet righteous change in the midst of a dangerous environment.  As I was reading the Gospel of Matthew, I came across the following verse: "Behold, I send you out as sheep in the midst of wolves; therefore become shrewd as serpents and innocent as doves.  But beware of men..."  Two words caught my notice.  The first was the word translated "shrewd", which in the Greek is the word φρόνιμος (pronounced "phronimos").  It can be rendered as "shrewd," "having presence of mind," "sagacious," "sensible," "prudent," "practically wise," "showing discernment," or "in one's right mind."  The second word is ἀκέραιος (pronounced "akeraios"), which can be rendered "pure," "unmixed," "uncontaminated," or "guileless."  In my Bible it is translated as "innocent", but I like the other renderings better.

These two qualities are an interesting mix for those nonviolent change agents who operate in a threat environment.  On the one hand, they are to be pure, unmixed, guileless - that is, they are to be truthful.  They are not to operate by underground conspiracy or deceit.  In other words, WYSIWYG.  Thus we see that Gene Sharp's warning against building movements that depend on secrecy has an ancient and much higher antecedent.  Yet if the open building of an open and virtuous movement is to succeed, it requires careful strategy.  Hence the need for practical, hardheaded shrewdness.  If we feel our lack of this kind of wisdom (and after all, who can say that they know everything?), it's time to go to school.

Saturday, March 6, 2021

The Potemkin Doctors

Two days ago I received my first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine.  In slightly less than three weeks, I will receive the second dose.  You can tell from the fact that I have written this post that I lived to talk about my experience.

However, I wish I could inoculate people against the viral spread of misinformation coming from the Russian government.  (See this, this, and this for instance.)  Among the tools used by Russian intelligence agents are Internet trolls who pretend to be ordinary average Americans - yet the points of view expressed by these trolls conveniently happen to line up with Russian objectives against both the United States and the West.  I have been monitoring a few suspected trolls over the last several months, and I noted how they linked to essays written by Umair Haque which were designed to decrease support for the candidacy of Joe Biden among those who identify as progressive and liberal.  The ultimate aim of these essays was to make the 2020 election close enough to enable Donald Trump to steal it.  They failed to achieve their goal.

Now some of these trolls have become conduits for spreading distrust regarding COVID-19 vaccines made by the West, and they have made some outlandish claims about suppression of information regarding the risks of the vaccines.  However, the CDC website does indeed have pages which describe potential risks and how doctors should manage these risks.  (See this and this for instance.)  When I received my first dose, I was monitored for fifteen minutes afterward.  I left the clinic under my own power, as they say.

To me, the potential risks of vaccination are far, far outweighed by the potential risks and complications of getting sick from an actual case of COVID-19.  It should be noted that by now, about one out of every eleven people in the United States has been infected, so with or without the vaccine, it may just be a matter of time until most of us are exposed to the virus anyway.  While I do trust the efficacy of the vaccines made in the West, it appears that a majority of Russians do not trust their own homegrown vaccine.  If the Sputnik vaccine is actually both safe and effective (and preliminary reports in the Lancet appear to indicate that it may be), perhaps the Russian government would do better to focus its propaganda efforts on its own people.  And perhaps Putin himself should man up and get a shot of his own vaccine.  The best propaganda consists of a proven track record of telling the truth.  Putin's regime does not have this.  

Sunday, February 28, 2021

From D to D, Chapter 6 (Continued): Spending Wisely

This post is a continuation of my "study guide" and commentary on the book From Dictatorship to Democracy by Dr. Gene Sharp. In this series of posts, I have shortened the title of the book to From D to D. As I have said in previous posts, the consideration of this book is highly relevant for these times, in which those who support the supremacy of the world's dominant peoples have created a world in which a select few get to Make Themselves Great by exploiting everyone else. The poor of the earth experience this exploitation as enslavement, discrimination, harassment, dispossession, and the threat of genocide. Many live as refugees. Theirs is an experience of apparent utter powerlessness in the face of an all-consuming, murderously abusive power.  

Yet the poor of the earth do have at their disposal a "weapons system" and a strategic method which holds the promise to liberate them from their oppression if they dare to use it.  That means of liberation is strategic nonviolent resistance.  But employing that means of liberation involves accepting the risk of further suffering by the oppressed as part of their struggle.  And here we encounter a common problem: namely, that those who are in the group which must struggle for its liberation have been conditioned by the historical experience of their suffering into patterns of compliance by which they hope to minimize their suffering as much as possible.  It's as if they are saying, "Life is already hard.  Why make it harder for ourselves by challenging our masters?  After all, they can make things really hard for us!"  This attitude might seem to make sense, but it contains the seeds of a contradiction, namely, that the oppressed will suffer regardless of whether they comply as good little victims or whether they choose to resist.  The only difference between the two choices of suffering is that suffering as good little victims is pointless and ultimately hopeless, for it does not accomplish anything.  On the other hand, the suffering that comes from struggle contains within it the seeds of liberation.

The first persons in an oppressed group who choose to struggle for liberation are those who have experienced cognitive liberation as I define it.  This is the point at which an oppressed person decides that he or she will no longer tolerate the oppression and its accompanying humiliation, and that he or she will begin to live in truth from now on - even if it means suffering.  These cognitively liberated individuals frequently become the "seed crystals", the organizers around whom an organized liberation struggle forms and grows.  This willingness to live in truth no matter the cost (and the accompanying willingness to accept that cost) is essential for those who begin to struggle for liberation.  Cowards and Uncle Toms don't liberate themselves.  As Gene Sharp says in How Nonviolent Struggle Works  (HNVSW), "A prerequisite of nonviolent struggle is to cast off or control fear of acting independently and fear of the sufferings which may follow."

Yet this cognitive liberation (and its resulting courage) is not the only ingredient needed for a successful liberation struggle.  A fully human being has both a feeling heart and a thinking head.  The heart guides people to where they should want to go, but the head tells people how to get there.  The head is where strategy is crafted.  Strategy is the answer to the question of how to act "in order to meet one's moral responsibility and maximize the effects of one's actions...The better the strategy, the easier you will gain the upper hand, and the less it will cost you." (HNVSW, page 66).

Concerning the crafting of strategy, it is important to note how much the practitioners of strategic nonviolent resistance can learn from the military.  For the armed forces of most nations that have been around for a while contain entire departments that are devoted to developing and teaching strategy.  (Think of the National War College of the United States, for instance.)  As with nonviolent actionists, those who become soldiers must be willing to pursue a course of action in conflict even though pursuing that course carries with it the risk of suffering and death.  Yet the soldiers and their commanders must also be willing to adapt their course of action to achieve the greatest effect with the least cost.  Those nations whose militaries do not count the cost tend to lose.  This is why a significant portion of Gene Sharp's thinking on the strategic element of strategic nonviolent resistance was drawn from military sources.  We will consider one of these sources today.

Basil Henry Liddell-Hart fought in World War 1 as a British army officer.  He was twice wounded in action, and the entire experience of the war (both personal experience and as an observer of strategy) had a profound effect on him.  In particular, he saw the wastefulness of that war, the damaging effect of the egos of the chief leaders on the conduct of the war, and the futility of two evenly-matched armies going head to head against each other in a straight-up slugfest.  This is what motivated him to write The Strategy of Indirect Approach in the 1940's.  This book contains several terms that are mentioned by Gene Sharp in his writings, particularly the concepts of grand strategy, strategy and tactics.

Among the other elements in his book are the following gems:
  • The purpose of strategy is "to diminish the possibility of resistance [by your opponent]."  This is achieved by choosing a course of action which your opponent is not ready to meet.
  • The perfection of strategy is to achieve a decision "without any serious fighting."
  • Clausewitz said that "All military action is permeated by intelligent forces and their effects."  Liddell-Hart comments that "Nevertheless, nations at war have always striven, or been driven by their passions, to disregard the implications of such a conclusion.  Instead of applying intelligence, they have chosen to batter their heads against the nearest wall."
  • Instead of "battering his own head against a wall," the strategist's aim "is not so much to seek battle as to seek a strategic situation so advantageous that if it does not of itself produce the decision, its continuation by a battle is sure to achieve this."
  • Therefore, the aim of strategy is to dislocate one's opponent - whether psychologically or logistically.  This occurs as the resisters pursue the opponent's line of least resistance, which on a psychological level is the same as pursing the opponent's line of least expectation.  
  • One of the best ways of dislocating your opponent is to pursue a course of action which has multiple possible objectives.  By doing so, you increase your chances of achieving at least one or more of these objectives, while at the same time you put your opponent into a dilemma, as he will not know which of your objectives to guard against.
  • "The more strength you waste the more you increase the risk of the scales of war turning against you" - in other words, the more strength you waste, the greater the chance that you will lose!
  • "Do not throw your weight into a stroke whilst (or, for us Americans, "while") your opponent is on guard."
If strategy is so important in military action in order to achieve goals with the minimum expenditure of strength, how much more important it is in conflicts in which one side does not use physical weapons at all in its struggle against a potentially violent opponent!  In his writings on strategic nonviolent resistance, Gene Sharp points out how the method of strategic nonviolent action can itself be a powerful indirect response to the direct organized violence of an oppressor, and how that indirect response can shatter the oppressor's ability to oppress.  As Sharp says, "It is important to 'nullify opposition by paralyzing the power to oppose' and to make 'the enemy do something wrong'..." (HNVSW, page 67.)  Nonviolent means are uniquely suited to accomplishing this task.  

But nonviolent means must be directed by a wise strategy in order to achieve this goal.  It is not enough simply to be committed to a certain moral or spiritual philosophy.  Case in point: I have suggested to some of the Black Lives Matter organizers that they need to do more in-depth study of strategic nonviolent resistance.  They might not realize this, but the reason I suggested this is that I think that last year, their opponents were able over time to run rings around them during the protests over the police murder of George Floyd and other African-Americans.  One of these organizers  responded by emailing me a link to "an amazing organization" that does training in "Kingian nonviolence".  A quick look at this "amazing organization" shows that they want to train people in what I call "nonviolence as a an expression of spirituality."  That is NOT what I'm talking about when I say the phrase "strategic nonviolent resistance."  In fact, I would say that every time someone hears me say "strategic nonviolent resistance" and thinks I'm saying "nonviolence", a kitten dies somewhere.  (Stop killing kittens!  The cat you save may be your own.)  Strategic nonviolent resistance is NOT a mere "expression of 'spirituality.'"  It is instead a means of liberation.  I want it to be used by historically oppressed people of color as a means of liberation of historically oppressed people of color.  And on a very pragmatic level, this method works better (and is much cheaper) than violence.  Please forgive my tone here, but I'm trying to correct a serious mistake.

The chief element of an effective strategy is the grand strategy of the struggle group, and this grand strategy orchestrates the development and choice of  campaign strategies, tactics and methods.  In my next post in this series, God willing, I will discuss what makes a good grand strategy, as well as discussing how campaign strategies, tactics and methods should be chosen to implement this grand strategy.  Stay tuned.

Friday, February 26, 2021

The Organizer's Story of Self

One key element of building an effective liberation struggle is the ability of organizers to spread and reproduce their own cognitive liberation in the people they are trying to organize.  A key to this spread is the organizer's "Story of Self."  Learning to tell an effective story of self - the telling of that moment or choice point in a person's life which pushed them to become an organizer - is a challenging exercise.  

I just finished participating in an online practice session in which participants worked on crafting and honing their "Stories of Self."  I heard some beautiful and concise examples of people illustrating their own activizing moments, their own choice points.  As for myself, I think I illustrated my own choice point well enough, but I took too long to do it.  (We are supposed to take only two minutes!)  My story needs some more work...

Sunday, February 21, 2021

From D to D, Chapter 6 (Continued): The Role of Cognitive Liberation In Strategic Thinking

This post is a continuation of my "study guide" and commentary on the book From Dictatorship to Democracy by Dr. Gene Sharp. In this series of posts, I have shortened the title of the book to From D to D. As I have said in previous posts, the consideration of this book is highly relevant for these times, in which those who support the supremacy of the world's dominant peoples have created a world in which a select few get to Make Themselves Great by exploiting everyone else. The poor of the earth experience this exploitation as enslavement, discrimination, harassment, dispossession, and the threat of genocide.  Many live as refugees.  (Indeed, when one considers the ways in which people in the United States end up homeless nowadays, one can see that we have created our own homegrown refugees.)  This is an experience of apparent utter powerlessness in the face of an all-consuming, murderously abusive power.  

In the last post in this series, I quoted a source which said that "Whenever people are badly treated, they always resist.  In our experience, people always resist violence and abuse in some way."  And yet for that resistance to be an effective means of liberation, it must be strategic.  Developing an effective strategy of liberating resistance can be challenging.  Often the first challenge lies within the resisters themselves, for as Gene Sharp says in Chapter 6 of From D to D
"It is also just possible that some democratic movements do not plan a comprehensive strategy to bring down the dictatorship, concentrating instead only on immediate issues, for another reason.  Inside themselves, they do not really believe that the dictatorship can be ended by their own efforts."
As I mentioned in that last post, if a victim of oppression is moved to resist that oppression, yet the victim does not really believe that his or her efforts will actually bring an end to that oppression, this pessimism will tend to make the resistance ineffective if not downright dysfunctional. The kind of resistance that actually liberates requires first that the oppressed be liberated in their minds, in their souls. This is the beginning and foundation of the term "cognitive liberation" as I define it. And according to my definition, the beginning of cognitive liberation is the "point in which an oppressed person decides that he or she will no longer tolerate the oppression and its accompanying humiliation, and that he or she will begin to live in truth from now on - even if it means suffering (up to and including death)."  This kind of cognitive liberation therefore must rest on a foundation of willingness to suffer and to die, a foundation of confidence even in the face of death.  For me, one foundation of my own cognitive liberation lies in this: "Since then the children [that is, human beings] share in blood and flesh, He Himself [that is, Jesus Christ] likewise also partook of the same, that through death He might render powerless him who had the power of death, that is, the devil; and might deliver those who through fear of death were subject to slavery all their lives." (Hebrews 2:14-15)

One effect of this kind of cognitive liberation is that the liberated begin to say, "Where there's a will, there's a way."  In other words, they begin to actively explore their situation in order to find out what elements they can shift, and how the shifting of those elements can begin to achieve long-term goals.  But it is precisely here that those seeking to liberate themselves encounter a great debate.  It's as if one was a character in a fairy tale who escapes from a dragon's lair and begins to tread the path to freedom - only to find the path blocked by two stone towers which face each other on either side of the path, and from which soldiers in each tower lob stones and arrows at the soldiers in the opposite tower.  Atop one of the stone towers is a single white banner flying in the wind, with the word "SKILLS" emblazoned on it in in royal blue.  Atop the other tower is a single blood-red banner flying in the wind, with a skull and crossbones and a single word emblazoned on it in fire-colored letters: "CONDITIONS."  The soldiers in the "SKILLS" tower are a mix of cognitively liberated practitioners of resistance and organizing, and they are helped by a collection of friendly academics.  The soldiers in the "CONDITIONS" tower tend to all be academics and mouthpieces of large media outlets.  The "CONDITIONS" soldiers also tend at times not only to shoot at the soldiers in the "SKILLS" tower, but also at the pilgrims on the path of life who are escaping from the dragon.

For a central debate among social movement scholars is precisely the importance of skills versus conditions in the creation of transformative social movements.  And here I will cite Chapter 3 of Doug McAdam's 1982 book Political Process and the Development of Black Insurgency 1930-1970.  It is in this chapter that McAdam defines what he means by "cognitive liberation."  In that chapter, McAdam mentions two theoretical models of power in a society such as that of the United States.  Both models acknowledge that "wealth and power are concentrated in America in the hands of a few groups, thus depriving most people of any real influence over the major decisions that affect their lives.  Accordingly, social movements are seen...as rational attempt by excluded groups to mobilize sufficient political leverage to advance collective interests through noninstitutionalized means."  

According to one of the two models, the disparity in power between the elite and excluded groups is so great that the power of the elites is virtually unlimited.  Thus the "CONDITIONS" scholars cite this structural imbalance of power as a determining condition of any liberation struggle.  (Or to put it another way, the message of the "CONDITIONS" soldiers is often, "Dude, it's hopeless!  Just give up!")  However, the "SKILLS" soldiers understand that every system of domination and oppression depends in some way on the people who are oppressed, and that thus "any system contains within itself the possibility of a power strong enough to alter it."  In other words, they see that the oppressed have a certain collective power which is able to fundamentally alter their situation if it is exercised collectively.  The reason why this power is not exercised is due to "shared perceptions of powerlessness."  Note that the elites "seek to keep unrepresented groups from developing solidarity and politically organizing..."  However, "the subjective transformation of consciousness is...crucial to the generation of insurgency."  In other words, when the perceptions of powerlessness in the oppressed are changed, the oppressed begin to liberate themselves.

How then does that perception of powerlessness begin to change on a mass basis?  McAdam asserts that it first begins by a change in the large-scale circumstances of the oppressed, that is, when the structure of political opportunities changes.  Thus when large-scale external events beyond the control of the elites begin to disrupt elite power structures, there is a corresponding shift in the political opportunities available to the oppressed.  One thing that McAdam may not have emphasized enough is that the oppressed themselves can, by their collective action, create those large-scale events that disrupt elite power structures.

There are other elements to the shift in the consciousness of the oppressed.  One of these elements is the relative abundance or lack of a wide range of organizations created of, by and for the oppressed.  For the oppressed to begin to awaken, there must first be "an established associational network," an "indigenous infrastructure" of community organizations created by and for the members of marginalized groups.  It is these organizations (and their leaders) who facilitate the large-scale changes in consciousness among the members of marginalized groups.  McAdam quotes Piven and Cloward in describing this shift:
"The emergence of a protest movement entails a transformation both of consciousness and of behavior. The change in consciousness has at least three distinct aspects. First, "the system" - or those aspects of the system that people experience and perceive - loses legitimacy.  Large numbers of men and women who ordinarily accept the authority of their rulers and the legitimacy of institutional arrangements come to believe in some measure that these rulers and these arrangements are unjust and wrong. Second, people who are ordinarily fatalistic, who believe that existing arrangements are inevitable, begin to assert "rights" that imply demands for change. Third, there is a new sense of efficacy; people who ordinarily consider themselves helpless come to believe that they have some capacity to alter their lot."

But it is to be noted that these changes in consciousness are much more likely to happen among people who regularly associate with each other in groups than among isolated individuals. 

And here it is good to take a look at how this process of cognitive liberation has played out in some rather recent social movements.  First, on a negative level we can see how a counterfeit of this process has played out among the members of the white American right.  Indoctrinated by right-wing, agenda-driven media mouthpieces, many members of the American right came to believe themselves to be members of an oppressed class and to interpret what should have been acknowledged as their own personal problems as something else, namely, as an attempt by poor dark-skinned people to take things away from white America.  Second, these interpreted the electoral successes of the Republican Party as an expansion of political opportunities.  Third, unscrupulous pastors and other prominent figures in the American Evangelical Right used the association of their congregations in regular Sunday services to engineer a shift in the consciousness of their members such that they began to regard as illegitimate the hopes, dreams, and rights of everyone who was not part of their "tribe."  (These, for instance, are the people who for the sake of "liberty" refused to wear masks even as their fellow community members were dying of COVID-19!)

But there are more positive contexts in which this process played out and continues to play out.  Russia comes to mind.  I want to mention a masters' thesis titled, "Corruption and Cognitive Liberation in Russian Environmentalism: A Political Process Approach To Social Movement Decline" by Anna Katherine Pride.  This thesis was written in 2009, and it described the decline of the Russian environmental movement from the mid-1990's until 2009.  She traced this decline to a decline in "cognitive liberation" as defined by Doug McAdam, and hypothesized that this decline was due to a breakdown in social cohesion and trust caused by rampant elite corruption.  According to her view, the decline could be traced thus: "Corruption" leads to "Cognitive Liberation recedes/reinstituted fatalism" which leads to "Social Movement declines" which leads to "state reasserts power" which leads to "Political Opportunity Structure closes" which leads to "movement decline continues".  

And yet...it must be noted that a strong democracy movement has emerged in Russia over the last ten years, and that its emergence was due in no small part to people who kept working, kept organizing, kept persisting, kept resisting, and kept experimenting as reflective practitioners even during the reassertion of power by the State and the supposed "closing" of the political opportunity structure.  Brown's thesis correctly posits that a breakdown in social cohesion and mutual trust hinders cognitive liberation because it disrupts the very networks along which that liberation and change of consciousness spreads.  This is why dictators strive to atomize the members of their societies.  And yet successful liberation movements have been instigated in the most atomized, repressive and unlikely of societies, by people who had experienced cognitive liberation as I define it.  In the Maldives, for instance, the initial problem of social atomization was overcome by activists who started throwing evening rice pudding parties on the beach and inviting friends, neighbors and strangers.  (See Blueprint for Revolution, pages 62-64).  To quote a martial arts story I read as a kid, "Where there is no door, make one."  If we're ready to make that door, it's time to start talking about the elements of strategy.  Stay tuned.

Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Link - Baratunde Thurston Inteview of Jamila Raqib

Here is a link to another resource that readers can enjoy while waiting for the next installment of my series on strategic nonviolent resistance based on Gene Sharp's book From Dictatorship to Democracy.  The link at the beginning of this post points the reader to an interview which Baratunde Thurston conducted with Jamila Raqib of the Albert Einstein Institution in August of last year.  Although the immediate motivation for that interview seems to have receded into the background, the interview contains some very sharp and penetrating insights.  The interview took place during some of the largest Black Lives Matter protests of last year in response to the police murder of George Floyd.  Like myself, Baratunde is an African-American who understands the necessity and requirements of active citizenship for self-liberation.  Like myself, Baratunde was concerned and alarmed by the increasing violence that accompanied some of the protests of last year.  And like myself, Baratunde was concerned by the words of various white "liberals" who were calling for political violence.  Like myself, he became suspicious that these so-called "liberals" might actually be agents provocateurs.  

He discussed this and other concerns in his interview with Jamila Raqib.  As for Jamila, she is a very sharp and astute scholar of strategic nonviolent resistance, having studied under both Gene Sharp and Marshall Ganz.  In her responses to Baratunde's questions, she explained how strategic nonviolent resistance is much more than mass protest marches, how violence weakens a liberation struggle, and how vital it is for those involved in a liberation struggle to develop an effective strategy for their struggle.  She also touched on Gene Sharp's catalog of 198 methods of nonviolent action, and she described how and why she first became involved in the study of strategic nonviolent resistance.

Sunday, February 14, 2021

The Tearing Of The Fig Leaf Dress

I still have a lot of reading to do in order to prepare my next post in the series on Gene Sharp's book From Dictatorship to Democracy.  Today's post will therefore not be part of that series.  And it will be a short post.

But I do want to comment on the significance of some of the geopolitical events which have taken place during the last month or so.  In particular, I want to comment on a particular effect of the massive protests which have taken place in Russia against the regime of Vladimir Putin.  Those who have been paying attention to events during the last decade will appreciate the significance of this effect.  Note this: one thing that narcissists always target in their victims is the victims' memory - for it is the ability to remember that enables the victim to recognize patterns of abusive behavior, and to make connections between those patterns and the narcissists' current behavior.  (See this also.)  If pattern recognition can be sabotaged, the narcissist can prevent the victim from taking the steps needed to permanently remove himself or herself from the narcissist.  This is why remembering history - both personal and communal (including national and international) is such an important faculty.

Those therefore who remember much of the commentary in the blogosphere and on a lot of "alternative media" from 2007 to early 2017 will remember how much of that commentary attempted to paint Russia under Vladimir Putin as a Paradise in the making, a model to which other nations should aspire.  Putin was fond of comparing himself to Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore's founding prime minister.  (See "Lee Kuan Yew and Russia: Role Model For Hire?", "Lee Kuan Yew Conferred Order Of Honour By Russia's Putin" and "How Lee Kuan Yew and Putin Exposed The Democracy Bogey" for instance.)  The comparison was a conveniently self-serving move for Putin, as Lee Kuan Yew had presided over the re-making of Singapore from a dirt-poor Third World ex-colony of Britain into an economic, scientific and technical powerhouse.  Putin sought similarly to paint himself as the re-making savior of Russia.

Putin's portrayal of himself as a savior was also central to his strategy of expanding Russian geopolitical influence during that time.  Other elements of that strategy included positioning Russia as a leader (perhaps the leader) of the white supremacist Global Far Right, and as a defender of traditional moral and religious values which were supposedly under severe threat due to the decadence of the West and the inevitable "excesses" that are supposedly associated with liberal democracy.  Saving the world from such "strong" threats required, of course, a "strong" leader.  And Putin was supposedly the man!  The project of expanding Russian geopolitical influence was also part of a larger narcissistic strategy of global empire which had first been developed by a rather slimy character named Aleksandr Dugin, and which I began to describe in a series of blog posts titled, "The Revanchism of the Third Rome."

For a while the strategy seemed to work.  This was especially true during the oil shock of the first decade of the 21st century, when oil prices briefly climbed above $140 a barrel on the world market and Russia made money hand over fist as a result.  But that oil shock produced economic effects which undermined the ability of the global economy to support such prices, and the cash boom which Russia enjoyed during that period began to dry up.  That boom is not returning.  Putin has been revealed to be a parasite, and his regime has been revealed to be parasitical.  And the nativist, populist leaders whom the Russian government helped to install in Britain, the U.S., Brazil, and other places have been revealed by the crises of the last two years to be parasites as well, parasites who are willfully, malignantly incompetent.  (To the Brexiteers: how does Brexit feel now?  Y'all happy?)

Now just as a smart wolf relies on sheep's clothing in order to optimize his catching of prey, so too do narcissistic beings (whether persons, families, or national governments) rely on the projection of an image of perfection.  But the underlying reality belies the image.  A wolf is not a sheep, no matter what kind of costume he puts on.  Putin is therefore no defender of traditional moral values if it is revealed that he is a divorced serial fornicator - even though his palace contains a church in addition to a pole dancing theater.  Nor has he turned Russia into a Paradise in the making.  Although he was able to recruit a rather large army of spin-doctors to project an image of perfection to the West, that image was like a dress made of fig leaves.  Perhaps the autumn of his regime has come, for it seems that the fig leaves have turned brown and brittle.  The protests during the first two months of this year have ripped that costume to shreds, revealing the raw flesh of life under Putin.  Eight months ago I suspected that something like this might happen - yet I am no prophet.  Rather, I say again now what I said back then: watch the weak signals.

P.S. Note that the most recent protests in Russia have been decentralized and performed in such a way that Putin's ПОЛИЦИЯ can't do a thing to stop them.  Nor can anyone inject violence into them.  The latest protests are an example of what the literature on strategic nonviolent resistance calls "tactics of dispersion."  These protests show strategic sophistication.  You BLM leaders: are you reading this?  Pay attention!  I'm telling you this as a brother.  How I wish we had done something like this after Stephon Clark was murdered by the Sacramento Police!