The Omar Wasow Re-Election Strategy

I don't watch or listen to news much these days.  (Even I have limits on how much garbage I can swallow in a day!)  So it was surprising to me to hear that the entire city of Portland, Oregon is "entirely ablaze all the time."  Thus says our orange-haired President of the United States, a man who I am sure has never told a lie in his life... Question to self: if Portland is entirely ablaze, why did I not see dozens of fire engines trying to put out the blaze as I went to the grocery store today?  Why was the store not on fire?  Why did I sleep so well last night?

Yet there have been fires - deliberately set by rioters - oops, I mean, "violent protesters" recently.  These "protesters" have also made appearances in several cities throughout the United States, as I am sure you are all aware.  Their modus operandi seems to be to cause as much provocative, polarizing property destruction (including tearing down statues and setting fires) and cause as much provocative, polarizing unrest as possible.  Some of them are no longer even pretending to be associated with Black Lives Matter or with the struggle against racism.  According to one source, the Antifa has made its reappearance among these "protestors".  Note that according to some sources, these who are causing property damage are White.  (Additional note: I have deleted the source I originally cited.  He has since turned out to be unreliable.)

Let me suggest that it's useless telling these people that they are actually helping the cause of Donald Trump as he seeks to demonize those who are opposed to him.  They already know that - which is why they are doing what they are doing.  Their tactics are reminiscent of the staged battles between the Antifa and various right-wing groups in Portland and elsewhere during the 2018 mid-term elections.  They are also reminiscent of vandalism perpetrated by Russian agents in Ukraine.

Why does Trump think that injecting violence into American society (and especially into the protests against racist oppression) will help him?  (For yes, there is overwhelming evidence that people aligned with Trump are behind the injection of violence into American politics in 2020!)  Let me suggest that even though Trump probably doesn't read anything much more complicated than coloring books, he has advisors who do know how to read.  And I'm sure that they have heard by now of a man named Omar Wasow.  Mr. Wasow is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Politics at Princeton.  He also did a study which is by now quite famous among students of strategic nonviolent resistance.  That study showed that the 1960's civil rights struggle achieved its most impressive gains when it was most strongly non-violent.  That study also showed that when protests began to become violent, the violence actually hurt the cause of the protestors and helped Richard Nixon to win the 1968 presidential election.

And that is Mr. Trump's only hope of a road to a legitimate election victory this November.  You see, even dictators can learn new tricks (or at least try to recycle old ones), as Will Dobson documented in his book titled, The Dictator's Learning Curve.  And for the last ten years or so, dictators around the world have been staying up all night studying how to thwart strategic nonviolent resistance.  By the way, I highly respect Dr. Wasow and his work.  It's a shame to see his work put to evil uses.  

But will Trump's gambit work?  Let me suggest that in 1968, there was not a coronavirus pandemic or its resulting economic fallout to deal with.  Let me also suggest that Slobodan Milosevic lost the election which deposed him even though he also resorted to dirty tricks.  And lastly, let me note that the Democrats flipped the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018.  Also, Dr. Wasow has two pieces of very good news.  First, the current data show that 93 percent of anti-racism protests this year have been peaceful and nondestructive, according to a recent Washington Post article.  Second, Trump's gambit does not appear to be working, according to additional recent articles in the Washington Post and on NPR.

Effective Resistance is NOT Protest

In response to the police murder of George Floyd, protests have erupted across the United States.  I agree with the anger of the African-Americans who have chosen to express their anger through protest.  I too am an African-American.  However, I do not think that protest is a wise means of expressing that anger at present.  Protest has not been a wise means of resistance ever since Donald Trump seized the presidency.  Therefore, to rely on protest as a means of tactical and strategic change is a tactical and strategic mistake.

As I have written in previous posts, protest is actually the weakest of the methods of nonviolent resistance, because it by itself does not apply effective pressure to an oppressor.  It is also a dangerous method to use when the oppressor has an understanding of how nonviolent struggle works, because the oppressor can then inject violence into what started as an act of nonviolent resistance.  Once the oppressor is able to inject violence into a nonviolent movement, it becomes much easier for the oppressor to justify the use of violent state repression against the nonviolent movement.  For more on this, please read the excellent Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict, by Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan.  Or just watch some of the YouTube videos of Erica Chenoweth.

This is why I am highly suspicious of the violent actors (mostly white; see this also) who have invaded the nonviolent protests by African-Americans against police brutality.  (Note that the second source I just cited has reported that many of the looters and rioters who have attacked businesses in St. Paul owned by people of color and immigrants over the last two days have been white people from out of town.)  Over the last three or so years, we have witnessed time and time again the provocative actions of the Antifa who show up uninvited to protests by people with legitimate grievances in order to turn those protests violent.  Thus the Antifa turns the protest away from a voicing of legitimate grievances by an oppressed group in order to focus attention solely on the Antifa (and to provoke outrageous reactions in their opponents by means of the outrageous actions of the Antifa).  Therefore, the destruction which is now happening in many parts of the country is not about police brutality against African-Americans, or about the brutality of ICE against Latinos, or about any actual grievance of any oppressed dark-skinned minority groups in the United States.

Based on what I have read and heard about strategic nonviolent resistance, I would like to offer a hypothesis.  First, I believe that the Antifa is funded by the same people who put Donald Trump into power.  Second, I believe that the real purpose of the Antifa is to provide a pretext for Donald Trump to impose martial law on the United States (or at least to boost his chances for re-election).  Third, I believe the Antifa has managed to infiltrate even some organizations whose ostensible mission is to teach strategic nonviolent resistance.  (See this, for instance.  By the way, the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict needs to take out some trash.  Seriously.)  By engaging in violence, the Antifa is actually strengthening the pillars of support of Donald Trump in a day in which those pillars of support should be weakening due to his incompetence and malignancy.  And I think (because it has been explained to them time and time again) that the leaders of the Antifa know all these things.  This is yet further evidence that the Antifa is not really about opposing fascism.

So for those who want to support communities of color in these times, please listen to the voices of some of the most prominent members of those communities of color (here, here, and here, for instance).  Do not engage in mass protest.  Let it be seen clearly who the agents of violence actually are.  Instead of protest, study how to build effective organizing skills in order to liberate yourselves from oppression without the use of violence.

One thing just occurred to me - maybe I'll make up some bumper stickers and hand them out to friends.  The stickers could say something like

THE ANTIFA IS PAID FOR BY TRUMP

or,

ANTIFA: PAID FOR BY TRUMP

Hmm...