The Precariat In The East: The Chinese Case

Today's post is the fourth installment in my series of posts on precarity as a feature of 21st century life and the precariat as a global cultural phenomenon.  For context, please also read Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3.  In the third post in this series, I wrote the following:

But the precariat has also arisen outside of the West.  What has been striking is its origin and spread in those regions which withdrew themselves from global capitalism in the early 20th century only to return to the capitalist fold near the end of the 20th century . . .

Today's post will consider the emergence of the precariat in China during the last forty-five years.  And it must be said that while precarity is a definite sign of economic inequality in a society, it is also true that there have been unequal societies in which precarity did not exist.  Chinese history spans both cases.  In fact, according to a paper titled, "Understanding Inequality in China" (Yu Xie, University of Michigan, 2010), ". . . inequality has been a part of Chinese culture since ancient times."  Historically, this inequality did not contribute to precarity among the poor in Chinese society.  However, this culture of inequality was a contributing factor in the precarity that emerged after the death of Mao Zedong.  So let us consider the evolution of inequality and class mobility in China from ancient times to now.  

Ancient China

In ancient China, the emperor was the only person with a permanent hereditary position of wealth, privilege, and power.  According to Yu Xie's paper, the emperor governed by two means: first, by the promulgation of the doctrines of Confucius and Mencius who taught that the mission of rulers is to work for the public good; and second, by the use of a vast corps of semi-autonomous administrators and bureaucrats scattered throughout the provinces of the Chinese empire.  The relationship between ordinary peasants and the emperor and his bureaucrats was therefore shaped by two points of propaganda: first, that the emperor and his administrators were actually working for the public good, and second, that for the emperor and his administrators to do their job, structural inequality was necessary.  According to Mencius, "‘There are those who use their minds and there are those who use their muscles. The former rule; the latter are ruled.  Those who rule are supported by those who are ruled.’ This is a principle accepted by the whole Empire . . ."  Therefore, the mission of the peasants was to use their labor to provide material support to this cadre of rulers.  

In order to make sure that the peasants did their part to support their rulers, a system of taxation was developed, and as part of that system, a system of personal registration (hukou (户口)) and household registration (huji (户籍)) was developed.  According to a paper titled, "Governing neoliberal authoritarian citizenship: theorizing hukou and the changing mobility regime in China" by C. Zhang, Queen's University Belfast (2018), this household registration system ". . . continuously served important social and political functions, including military conscription, taxation, local policing, social security and mobility control, for about two millennia in the centralized bureaucratic empire . . ."  Note especially the mention that from time to time, the huji system was used to limit the ability of subjects to move around from region to region in the empire.  This is corroborated by a mention in another paper of how the Qin dynasty used the huji system to limit movement of individual subjects from region to region: "The Qin people [sic] could not freely move outside an administrative unit to which he or she belonged; thus, they had to use credentials for traveling and transfer certain personal documents when moving from one unit to another."  ("In the Government's Service: A Study of the Role and Practice of Early China's Officials Based On Excavated Manuscripts," Daniel Sungbin Sou, University of Pennsylvania, 2013)

Even with this system of registration in place, however, social mobility was still possible in ancient China.  For the rich, whose riches under the existing economic and cultural system were not easily inheritable, there was always the possibility of downward economic movement.  According to Yu Xie's paper cited above, ". . . except for the emperor, the aristocratic and privileged classes were not stable . . . In fact, the emperor did not want the inheritance of the aristocratic and privileged class."  People who got too rich could in fact be repressed and have some of their possessions confiscated.  Also, poor people could advance their family prospects by investing in the education of their sons.  By this means the next generation could climb the rungs of the Chinese meritocracy and become administrators themselves.

By these arrangements, ancient Chinese society was conditioned to accept inequality as the "inevitable" price of the promotion of the social welfare of the entire society.  The system worked and was acceptable to all as long as emperors and their administrators actually ruled for the benefit of all, and as long as there was some room for social mobility among the poor.  However, between ancient times and the present, China underwent subjugation by Western powers, followed by a revolutionary fight for independence.  As a result, its internal systems went through a period of readjustment.  

Maoist China

Maoist China inherited most of the existing cultural institutions which had endured from ancient times.  Maoist China also inherited the toxic mess which Western colonialist powers had made of Chinese society.  However, the responses of the government of Mao Zedong to this mess created new challenges.  One of Mao's early goals was to transform China from a primarily agrarian society to a modern industrial society as quickly as possible.  This led to such disasters as the Great Leap Forward which was launched in 1958.   

In 1958 the system of internal household registration was also transformed into a much more rigid modern hukou system modeled on the Soviet Russian system of propiska (пропи́ска).  It is interesting to note that in its original form, the Russian propiska system, hundreds of years old, was designed to prevent the upward social mobility of Russian serfs.  The Chinese system, borrowing from the Russian system, thus created a society which was the opposite in certain key aspects from the socialist promise of a "classless" society.  

The hukou system had the following elements:

• Starting in 1958, all people had to be registered according to birthplace.
• The person's birthplace was the determinant of whether the person received State welfare services and what kind of services would be received.
• Those whose birthplace registration was urban received State services.
• Those whose birthplace registration was rural received no State services.  Any welfare services they received had to come from communal social arrangements in their village of registration.
• Those whose birthplace was urban were categorized as non-agricultural.  Those whose birthplace was rural were categorized as agricultural.
• The children of the people registered in 1958 inherited the hukou status of their parents.  The children of these children, in turn, inherited their parents' hukou status.  Thus even if you were a child born in the 1990's in a city, if your parents had a rural hukou status, you inherited the same rural hukou status.

The Maoist hukou system created a social hierarchy in which the members of the Communist Party were at the pinnacle.  Immediately below them were the city dwellers who were involved in industrial production.  Below them were the rural peoples, whose mission was to provide food to the industrial urban centers and the leadership of the country in order to fulfill the mission of rapid industrialization.  Therefore, the social mobility of the rural, agricultural hukou holders was severely restricted.  Anyone who held an rural agricultural hukou who tried to move to a city without permission was likely to be severely punished.  Moreover, anyone from the countryside who moved to the city without permission would be denied access to the social services available to the residents of the city who held urban, nonagricultural hukou status.  And the Chinese government made it very hard for anyone with a rural hukou status to change to an urban hukou status.  (See "China's Household Registration (Hukou) System: Discrimination and Reform", Fei-Ling Wang, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2005.)  According to "China’s Hukou System: How an Engine of Development Has Become a Major Obstacle" (Martin King Whyte, Harvard University, 2009), the holders of rural, agricultural hukou comprised 80 percent of the total Chinese population in Maoist times.

One last feature of note in the Maoist system was the danwei (单位) system.  A danwei was a work unit organized in Maoist China.  According to Wikipedia, the workers assigned to a danwei were the bottom rungs of the social hierarchy whose head was the central Communist Party.  Danwei referred not only to the place of work but also to the organization of the work unit.  The danwei also served the purpose of dispensing social welfare benefits to their subjects.  Thus things like health care, schooling and day care for children, and other benefits were dispensed to workers through their danwei.  Once assigned to a danwei, it was very hard for a worker to be fired, because the danwei provided an "iron rice bowl" to their workers, a system of social welfare and livelihood that, while often not comfortable, at least prevented them from having to live a precarious existence.  While this security had its good features, it was part of a system that did not deliver prosperity and national advancement as rapidly as was wished by some of the more forward-thinking members of the Chinese Communist Party.  Therefore, after Mao's death, Chinese social arrangements were again altered in order to attempt to harness capitalism as an accelerator of growth and advancement.  While the alteration did produce results, it also accelerated the increase of inequality in China and began to introduce a rapidly-growing element of precarity in Chinese society.

From The End of Maoism to Today

The changes wrought by the reforms begun in 1978 have been profound.  Two changes are especially relevant, as they have contributed most greatly to the emergence of the precariat in China.  The first is the smashing of the "iron rice bowl" danwei system.  According to Wikipedia, when individual private enterprise became possible once again, private enterprises and foreign multinational corporations were able to out-compete state-run danwei.  This led to the weakening and shrinkage of the danwei, and the increasing number of workers who were thrust out of stable careers with guaranteed benefits into an uncertain labor market.  Thus these refugees from the danwei system became an element of today's precariat in China.  In losing their danwei, these displaced workers lost the social units that once gave them status, identity, and access to benefits.

The hukou system was also changed.  The changes have been coordinated between the Chinese government and large holders of capital in the Chinese economy, and their goal has been to create and expand a large, flexible, and cheap workforce.  The elements of this change are as follows:

• Restrictions on physical movement under the Maoist hukou system have been relaxed somewhat but definitely not eliminated.  
• Hukou status has largely remained unchanged in the sense that it is still difficult for holders of rural hukou to change their status to urban.
• Legal migration of rural residents to urban centers is more possible now than in Maoist times.  However, rural residents who do migrate are still denied access to the social welfare services and legal citizenship rights granted to holders of urban hukou.  
• This arrangement has therefore created a very large class of migrant workers who are paid very cheaply and have few or no rights.  
• Those who migrate legally are more likely to be integrated into the formal economy of the cities to which they migrate, whereas those who migrate illegally tend to wind up in the informal economy.
• Whether formally or informally employed, these migrant workers are not granted stable, long-term employment contracts.  Therefore they comprise another very large sector of the Chinese precariat.
• Many of these people are forced to work like dogs, as evidenced by the "996" schedule imposed by many employers, a schedule which was only recently ruled illegal by the Chinese Supreme Court.
• Those who migrate illegally are subject to the threat of violence either by the State or by their employers.

One other thing to note is that in China as elsewhere, education is no longer the guaranteed road out of precarity into a more stable life.  A 2021 paper titled, "After the Foxconn Suicides in China: A Roundtable on Labor, the State and Civil Society in Global Electronics" describes the exploitation of young Chinese students by the tech industry, thus highlighting the struggle of the large percentage of youth in the Chinese precariat.  This is also pointed out in another paper titled, "The Chinese Race to the

Bottom: The Precarious Lives of Unemployed University Graduates in Beijing’s ‘Ant Tribe’".

Lastly, it should be noted that although the precariat in China is expanding, expressions of resistance to exploitation are beginning to appear as well.  For further information on these, you can read the first pages of Building China: Informal Work and the New Precariat by Sarah Swidler.

I have one or two more global regions to examine in sketching the precariat as it exists in the world today.  Those will require more research, so the next post in this series may need to wait a couple of weeks.

Christopher Caldwell's Sympathy for Vladimir Putin's Point of View

The New York Times recently ran an opinion piece by a Mr. Christopher Caldwell who chided the Biden administration for "escalating" the war between Ukraine and Russia by supplying M1 main battle tanks to Ukraine.  Mr. Caldwell's point of view is similar to that of some other highly-placed commentators writing for outfits such as Foreign Policy magazine, as well as a certain clueless former rock star associated with Pink Floyd.  It seems these people want the West to put up no opposition to the narcissistic desire of Russia to establish a global empire.

That doesn't fly with me.  Russia has been guilty of subverting and destabilizing the democratic process in a large number of nations, including the United States.  Russia has aggressively re-asserted its imperial dominance over a number of nations which had been in the process of being bled dry by the imperial Russian center during the days of the Soviet Union.  Those nations are once again being bled dry by Moscow under Putin.  Every nation that Russia has touched over the last two decades has begun to turn to garbage.  If the West wants to live in a world that has been turned entirely into garbage, it need do nothing more than capitulate to Russia.  I, however, do not want to live in such a world, subject to the evil, perverted desires of people like Vladimir Putin and Aleksandr Dugin.  Therefore, I choose to resist.  And I urge all who love freedom to resist.  If the world resists successfully, then Russian power will be shattered and the world will be delivered from a major threat.  Russia must lose.  If that makes Christopher Caldwwell and his fellow travelers unhappy, then I would invite them to move to Russia or Belarus or Chechnya or Georgia or Kazakhstan and live under Putin, since they seem to like living in the midst of garbage.  They should either put up or shut up.

The Desperate Need For A Distributed, Peer-to-Peer, Open-Source Search Engine

This year, 2023, is the year in which a desperate need has arisen among those of us who actually try to do useful work via the Internet.  The need I am talking about is the need for a truly open-source, distributed, peer-to-peer search engine that is not owned by any corporate entity.  Google search has turned to absolute garbage.  This is because Alphabet, the parent company of Google, has completely changed the purpose of the Google search engine from helping people find useful information.  The main purpose of Google Search has now become to earn advertising revenue by selling advertising.  I know that some who read these words will say "Well, DuckDuckGo is better!"  But such people overlook the fact that DuckDuckGo, Ecosia, Yahoo!, and AOL are all owned by Microsoft.  Therefore they rely on the Bing search engine, an engine whose primary mission has also become to earn advertising revenue.  This means that both Google and Microsoft search have become increasingly useless.

These things make me think of a book I recently found called Obliquity, by John Kay.  In his book, Kay describes a number of companies which used to earn large profits for their shareholders by focusing on providing excellent products and services.  However, when those corporations abandoned their mission of providing excellent products and switched to the mission of maximizing shareholder value, they began to crash and burn.  Two examples of this phenomenon are the British chemical company ICI, and the Boeing Company.  Boeing is especially interesting in that this company used to dominate commercial aviation from the 1960's until the early years of the 21st century.  This was because of Boeing's singular focus on aviation science and the craft required to make the best airplanes possible.  However, when Boeing switched to maximizing shareholder value as its primary goal, its executives made a series of unwise technical decisions which resulted in a number of disasters, especially around the 737 MAX aircraft.  These missteps allowed the European company Airbus to gain a global market lead over Boeing.

A similar process seems to be at work in regard to search engines.  For Google, the process started with providing a best-in-class search engine which outperformed all other search engines during the early days of the Internet.  This was because Google was created by people who were genuinely passionate about computing.  But when Google was taken over by grownups in business suits, the passion became the maximization of shareholder value even if this took place at the expense of what used to be Google's primary mission, which had been to help people find things on the Internet.  (Microsoft, on the other hand, had always been run by greedy grown-ups in business suits.)  Thus we the users are now stuck with garbage.  The thinking at Google and Microsoft may well be that we, the users of their products, have no other options, so they can get away with continuing to give us garbage.  But alternatives to garbage do exist, and when they are discovered, they can take hold in a surprisingly short time.  Then companies which seek to maximize profits by offering garbage may find their profits suddenly collapsing.  Just ask the former employees of ICI and some of the recently laid-off employees of Boeing.

How Decent People Should Respond To The Murder of Tyre Nichols

I wasn't planning to write another blog post this weekend.  And I have grown to dislike regular exposure to the news.  But the police murder of Tyre Nichols came to my attention within the last few hours.  Tyre Nichols was an unarmed African-American man who was brutally beaten to death by the police in Memphis, Tennessee.  Tennessee is a red state ruled by Republicans and I am sure that many of its citizens are white evangelicals who loudly proclaim the name of Jesus even though they have no intention of doing anything He actually commanded them.

The question that naturally arises after yet another White murder of unarmed Black people is how we who are people of color should respond.  I wrote an extensive series of blog posts on that subject a little more than two years ago.  Those posts can be found on the sidebar of this blog, under the headings, "From Dictatorship to Democracy" and "Resistance In The Age of Trump."  These posts deal with the subject of strategic nonviolent resistance as a means of liberation of historically oppressed peoples.  Let me summarize some key points from those posts as follows:

• Strategic nonviolent resistance is an effective means of liberation - especially when it is guided by wise strategy.

• Strategic nonviolent resistance does not consist of trying to convert the oppressor by appealing to the "better angels" of the oppressor.

• Strategic nonviolent resistance works best when an oppressed population withdraws its cooperation from a system of oppression in ways that impose coercive costs on that system and its masters.

• The best kind of coercive costs which an oppressed people can impose are economic costs.  Think of things like the Montgomery Bus Boycott, for instance.

• A key component of effective strategic nonviolent resistance consists of the oppressed population building their own structures for individual and communal self-reliance.  This way they will not need to rely on the structures of the oppressor.

• Effective resistance does not rely solely or even primarily on mass protest marches.

• Mass protest marches are not as effective now as they were in the past, because oppressors have learned how to discredit the protests by sending agents provocateurs into the marches to cause violence and vandalism.

• One of the main strengths of strategic nonviolent resistance is its nonviolent character.  Therefore beware of any people (especially from the white community) who try to persuade you to mix violence (including vandalism or property damage) of any kind into your struggle.  If you listen to them, you will give the oppressor a ready-made excuse to increase his oppression.  That is why the oppressor sends such people to try to infiltrate your struggle.  The oppressor will use any means to try to force your struggle to turn violent.  If the oppressor can successfully tempt you to use violence or to destroy property, then he can justify using force to violently crush you.  Maintain nonviolent discipline!  If you maintain nonviolent discipline, then any violence which your oppressor inflicts on you will backfire on him instead.

• This means that you should probably not listen to anything said by the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict from 2016 onward or to anything said by Erica Chenoweth from 2019 onward.  These people used to give good advice up to 2016.  After Trump entered the White House, the advice of the ICNC began to turn to garbage.  (I wonder - was that change deliberate?)  And in my opinion, Erica Chenoweth's recent book titled Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs To Know is a continuation of that garbage.

• Effective strategic nonviolent resistance requires people to develop the art of strategic thinking and of learning to work together in long-term projects of collective self-reliance.  Start developing these skills.

Research Week - End of January 2023

As I noted in my most recent post on the subject of precarity, there is a fairly wide body of research which has been done on the origins and spread of the precariat in the developed nations of the West.  I think it is good also to see how the precariat has come into being and has evolved in those nations that are not historically of the West.  The last post in the series therefore covered precarity as it exists in Russia.  I promised that the next post in the series would cover other non-Western cases.

In preparation for that next post I have therefore downloaded several articles concerning another nation of interest to this discussion.  However, I need time to read and analyze everything I've downloaded so that my next post does not wind up shooting from the hip.  Hopefully I'll be ready by next weekend . . . 

Why Nuclear Threatening Won't Work

It appears finally that the West is going to get off the dime and send Ukraine the heavy weapons it needs to defeat the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Putin has responded by using his flying monkeys to send a message to the West that if Russia loses, the result will be nuclear war.  There's just one problem.  Putin's Russia has shown what it will do to all those whom it conquers by its treatment of Ukrainians in Russian-occupied territory.  By the pronouncements of not only Putin, but of fascist thugs like Aleksandr Dugin, Russia has shown what it wants to do to the entire world.  If Russia is allowed to win, Russia will turn the entire world into the toilet bowl of Russia.  That is unacceptable.  Given a choice between this option and nuclear war, frankly, I'd rather take my chances on nuclear war.  I do not say this lightly.  Because of my moral stance, I would much rather see a nonviolent solution, especially if that nonviolent solution was achieved through the coercive use of nonviolent economic power to destroy Russia's ability to make war.  But allowing Russia to have its way is not an option.  Russian power must be destroyed.  And those in the West who continue to make excuses for Russia or to play telephone tag for Russia or to be sock puppets for Russia must learn to shut their mouths.

The West must stop allowing its fight against Russian imperialism to be dictated by the rules the Russians seek to impose on us.  In other words, we must do whatever it takes to destroy Russian imperialism.  Whatever it takes.

The Global Origins And Spread of the Precariat (Part 1)

Last week's post described my own experience of precarity - an experience which continued in surprising ways even through the world of white-collar professional work.  This week's post will begin to explore the theoretical foundations for understanding the precariat, and will begin to trace the present existence of the precariat in the societies of certain nations of interest.  

Precarity can be understood as a social bargain that has been lost.  The loss of this bargain can be described thus: "The emergence and strengthening of [the] precariat are associated with regulatory dysfunction . . . Precariat is a consequence of the lack of effective institutions for regulating emerging new social relations. Such institutions cannot be replaced by designing effective market mechanisms . . .   Precariat is formed wherever stable forms of employment are destroyed."  [Emphasis added.]  ("Socio-Economic Sustainable Development and the Precariat: A Case Study of Three Russian Cities," Volchik, Klimenko, Posukhova, International Journal, Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, September 2018)   Precarity is therefore the loss of the social bargain between workers and employers which was forged in the labor movements of the late 19th and 20th centuries in industrial nations.  It can also be seen as the destruction of the social arrangements which were forged and codified into law (such as antitrust and anti-monopoly laws) between ordinary people and the rich.

The destruction of this pre-existing social arrangement has been documented by observers such as economist Guy Standing, a Professorial Research Associate at SOAS University of London.  Mr. Standing did pioneering research into the topic of precarity and the precariat, and captured his observations and conclusions in two books which he wrote, titled, The Precariat: The New Dangerous Class, and A Precariat Charter: From Denizens to Citizens.  To quote from a 2018 essay by Mr. Standing, "Since 1980, the global economy has undergone a dramatic transformation, with the globalization of the labor force, the rise of automation, and—above all—the growth of Big Finance, Big Pharma, and Big Tech. The social democratic consensus of the immediate postwar years has given way to a new phase of capitalism that is leaving workers further behind and reshaping the class structure. The precariat, a mass class defined by unstable labor arrangements, lack of identity, and erosion of rights, is emerging as today’s “dangerous class.” As its demands cannot be met within the current system, the precariat carries transformative potential . . . "

In his essay, Guy Standing traces the beginnings of the precariat to the deliberate dismantling of social arrangements between owners of big business and workers at the start of the 1980's.  This dismantling was part of the process of radical, rabid free-market capitalism pushed by people such as Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.  According to Standing, those who pushed this process ". . . preached 'free markets,' strong private property rights [at least for those who were filthy rich!  Not so much for little people . . .], financial market liberalization, free trade, commodification, privatization, and the dismantling of all institutions and mechanisms of social solidarity, which, in their view, were 'rigidities' holding back the market. While the neoliberals were largely successful in implementing their program, what transpired was very different from what they had promised."

Standing describes the process of precarization as it began in the West (especially the United States, the other nations of the Five Eyes, and Europe) and as it was promulgated by various institutions of Western economic hegemony such as the World Trade Organization.  But the precariat has also arisen outside of the West.  What has been striking is its origin and spread in those regions which withdrew themselves from global capitalism in the early 20th century only to return to the capitalist fold near the end of the 20th century.  Indeed, it can be argued that wherever there is a society characterized by connection to the global economy, extreme levels of inequality, and a very small class of plutocrats who control an enormous percentage of that nation's economy, there you will find the precariat in existence.  What is more, you will find that the plutocrats of each of the world's major societies share a lot in common with each other.  So I'd like to take this post and the next post in this series to describe the process of precarization as it has worked itself out in other regions of the world.  Let's start with Russia.

"Funeral for the Middle Class", a protest which took place 

in Russia in 2015.  In the picture, the "casket" being placed

by the man in the center has the words "средний класс" ("middle class")

written on it.  Image retrieved from Obschchaya Gazeta on 21 January 2023.

In Russia, the transition from Soviet communism to free market capitalism was a transition from the Soviet arrangement where "formalization, legal confirmation, and guarantee of a workplace for a worker were the methods which prevented the spread of precarization.  The system was oriented toward distribution of social benefits, consolidation of the worker's professional status in the consequent sphere, and work, labour, employment, and housing related stabilities . . ." (Quote taken from "The Precariat In The Socio-Economic Structure of the Russian Federation," Maria Fedina, International Department of Movement for Decent Work and Welfare Society, September 2017.)  It was a transition into an employment market which has ". . . 'responded to unfavorable economic transformations by such means of adaptation as part-time and seasonal work, forced vacation leave, secondary employment and employment in the informal sector'. Other forms of adaptation include fixed-term employment contracts, outsourcing of workers, employment on the basis of employment contracts with a condition of work outside the employer’s location, and employment of individual entrepreneurs who have no possibility to run their own business by other entrepreneurs." [Emphasis added.]  To break this down into plain language, Russians moved from an economic environment in which housing and employment were stable and secure, and moved into an environment in which many Russian workers today may be forced to work part-time, may be forced into involuntary unpaid time off, or be forced into gig/temporary work where they must assume all of the liabilities of being "independent contractors" yet have no legal way of acting as actual entrepreneurs.  

According to the sources cited by Maria Fedina in her essay, up to 85 percent of the Russian labor force faces the possibility of falling into the precariat, while 30 to 40 percent of the labor force belongs to the precariat at any one time.  A large percentage of the Russian precariat consists of highly skilled professionals and highly educated people, having achieved at least a bachelors degree.  However, the prestige of their professions has been devalued in the minds of the Russian public as a tool to force these professionals into precarious, low-wage arrangements.  This is especially true of teachers, as noted in the paper by Volchik, Klimenko, and Posukhova cited above.  Also of note is the fact that a large number of the members of the precariat are involved in the informal economy in Russia, where legal workplace and worker protections are entirely absent.

Precarity is therefore a design feature of the present system of Russian capitalism.  The origins of this system lie with the Russian oligarchs who arose from the wreckage of the crashed Soviet system.  (To see where these oligarchs came from, please read "The Role of Oligarchs in Russian Capitalism," Guriev and Rachinsky, Journal of Economic Perspectives - Volume 19, Number 1, Winter 2005).  These oligarchs controlled betweewn 70 and 90 percent of the Russian economy by the time the transformation to a capitalist society had been completed.  (See "The Piratization of Russia: Russian Reform Goes Awry," F. Joseph Dresen, Wilson Center.)  In the early years of the 21st century, Vladimir Putin used Russian state power to transform these oligarchs into Putin's pillars of support.  (To see the definition of "pillars of support", click here.)  Therefore, the birth and growth of the Russian precariat can be quite accurately seen as part of the goals and policy of the Russian elites both in government and in the private sector.  For their overarching goal is to enrich themselves at everyone else's expense.  And Putin truly has shown himself to be a thieving little man in a bunker.  For when Putin's government arrested (or in many cases killed) those oligarchs who dared to oppose him, it was not to fight corruption, but rather to establish a loyal base of Russia's wealthiest citizens.  The Russian oligarchy is alive and well under Putin (although during the last year they've begun to feel a bit ill.  Sanctions can lead to indigestion . . . ).

For members of the Russian precariat, life has become surprisingly similar to life for members of the precariat in the rest of the developed world.  These include long working hours, an absence of benefits, no guarantee of employment stability, and a refusal of employers to manage the safety and work environments in which their employees must operate.  In an increasing number of cases this has led to deaths of workers and of bystanders, as documented by Katya Zeveleva's piece titled "Russian gig economy violates worker rights with society’s tacit acceptance" (Oxford Human Rights Hub, July 2019).

Russia is but one example of the re-creation of the precariat in a non-Western context.  Next week, we shall consider other cases, God willing.

Precarity - My Own Experience

Last week's post presented a few definitions of precarity as a social and economic phenomenon.  Today I'd like to present a definition which overlaps the definitions previously given while expanding a bit on the personal side of this phenomenon.  From the standpoint of those who experience it, precarity is a state of being in which a person can't be sure that they will have enough money each month to make rent or mortgage payments, to go places by other means than walking or riding a bicycle, to keep the utilities connected, or to cover groceries for the entire month.  This can be due to not earning enough each month for the expenses listed above.  It can also be due to having a job which is in danger of disappearing even though for the present it does provide enough money to cover the bills.

Although I am an African-American and my family is African-American, I was not born into precarity, even though I was born into a time in which I and my family had to face an environment of racial hostility which was as bad as or perhaps even worse than the worst which the Trump years produced in this country.  My life from birth to adolescence was relatively secure because my dad was an officer in the military.  However, once I reached adolescence, my siblings and I found ourselves living in a broken home.  It is not my desire now to describe how this happened or who was at fault.  Indeed, at the time our home was breaking, I could not have provided such a description, as a lot of what was happening went right over my head.  All I knew at the end of it was that I was now living with one parent instead of two.  

I do not want to say anything that would be dishonoring to either of my parents.  However, for the purpose of this post, I must say that the parent with whom I ended up living chose to approach the new, constrained life we faced with a rather - shall we say, interesting - perspective.  Looking back, it seems to me that some of the elements of that perspective consisted of the notion that we should live as luxuriously as possible even if it required Divine miraculous intervention, combined with a belief system and theology heavily influenced by holy-roller Pentecostalism.  Mistakes and bad choices were therefore made, and we suffered consequences such as occasionally running out of food before the end of the month, having utilities turned off, having a car repossessed, and finding it hard to buy clothes for rapidly-growing children.  This parent was not the only source of my personal sufferings during that time.  I too was a complete and utter doofus.  To explain this further, I was an underachiever and quite lazy.  Partly this was due to the fact that I could not stand school, although I was able to do well enough when I applied myself.  But I preferred to spend my time either watching TV, listening to public radio, reading science fiction, or just prowling the neighborhood during the hours when my parent was working swing shift.  Therefore I was definitely not on the college prep track.  

During my freshman and sophomore years in high school, this sort of life was tolerable to me.  But as the Good Book says, "Whatever a man sows, that he shall also reap."  After a while the reaping grew more and more painful.  I therefore started looking for work at a local swap meet, and later got a job at a local drive-in movie theater.  And I began to worry about my future beyond high school.  I knew that I had not prepared myself adequately for college, let alone for any kind of scholarship money.  So it seemed to me that my best chance for eating and having clothes to wear after high school lay in joining the military myself.  Therefore I enlisted.

Thankfully, during my tour of duty I was never in combat and never had to shoot at anyone.  But I quickly got tired of spending my time sleeping in the woods with people whom I could hardly stand, people who got drunk at every possible opportunity.  So I served only one tour and then got out.  My experiences of adolescence had combined with my military experience to produce in me something that had not previously existed, namely a strong desire to better myself and to leave completely behind a lifestyle of just barely getting by.  So I decided to put myself through college.  My heavy exposure to science fiction moved me to choose engineering as a major.  I knew I was in for a long and hard slog to reach my goal, but now I was determined to get there.

I entered my college years with a certain perspective on the world and on the place of educated people in the world.  Part of that perspective consisted of the expectation that corporations and their white-collar workers would continue the same occupational culture which my dad had experienced during his career.  He had served in the military as an officer until he had reached the point where he could retire, then had switched to white-collar managerial work as an employee of a large defense contractor.  Later he retired from that job also and entered into a well-endowed post-retirement life.  He was part of a corporate and occupational culture in which corporations lasted for decades and entered into what I call long-term care arrangements with their best and most loyal employees.  This meant that those who worked for these corporations for a long enough time could expect a guaranteed pension and the sort of stereotypical retirement send-off in which the boss would give the new retiree a gold watch.

The reality I experienced was rather different from this, to say the least.  When I first left the military and moved back to Southern California, I got a job at a defense plant in order to support myself while I was in school.  This was in the last years of the Cold War, and we thought the Cold War would last for decades more.  Therefore we thought our defense plant and others like it would continue in much the same way that public utility companies continued decade after decade.  But then the Berlin Wall fell, and for a time, geopolitical shifts destroyed the economic security of a number of defense contractors.  The plant I worked for was eventually converted to a shopping center.  Many, many people were laid off.

After I obtained my bachelors degree, I went to work for an engineering firm which had once done cutting-edge work for the U.S. Department of Defense and NASA during the space race and the arms race.  However, both national and global political shifts had caused most of that work to dry up by the time I came on board.  The military work never completely dried up.  However, during my first few years at that firm, we worked on prisons (a fact of which I am now ashamed), as well as MEP (mechanical, electrical, and plumbing) design for a number of fast food joints (we're talking about places as small as a typical Taco Bell or McDonald's), gas stations, and amusement parks.  When I first joined that firm a new employee could enroll in the company pension program.  But within a few years, the pension program was replaced entirely by a 401k/ESOP program.  Only the old-timers got anything like a gold watch.  And not a few of those old-timers got the ax during one of several down-sizing periods.  There were times when the cubicle farm in which I worked looked to me like a town in Europe of the Middle Ages must have looked after the bubonic plague had swept through it.  Picture a town with lots of suddenly empty houses.

A major factor which began to affect my engineering discipline (and hence the stability of my career) was the beginning and later acceleration of the automation of many elements of the design process.  This took place as design software companies added functions in their software for the rapid performance of both drafting, layout, and computational tasks which had formerly required humans to do things by hand.  Some of those people I knew who got the ax had been among those who refused to learn the new technology.

My first experience of precarity had been due to personal foolishness on the part of myself and my relatives.  This led me to take the path of education as a means of escape.  I do not in the least regret taking that path.  However, in leaving one realm and entering another, I unwittingly entered a realm of accelerating precarity caused by accelerating large-scale economic and technological shifts outside of my control.  Those shifts were driven by the following factors:

• The destruction of restrictions on capital flows as a result of the deregulation that began under former President Ronald Reagan in the 1980's.  This led to the following:
• An increasing attempt by corporations to try to grow profits by financial trickery, by mergers and acquisitions, and by cutting costs related to long-standing covenants with workers.
• An increasing volatility in the corporate landscape, with long-standing publicly-traded firms suddenly being threatened by either the consequences of ill-advised decisions, or the threat of hostile takeovers, or by the blowing and bursting of economic bubbles, or by the saturation of existing markets.
• The shrinkage of available resources for large-scale transformative megaprojects.  This shrinkage was driven by:
• The political and economic conservatism of Republican administrations in the United States from 1980 onward.  This conservatism tended to lead to cuts in any kind of programs (such as the space program) which had aspirational goals related to the betterment of humankind, although the Republicans always seemed to be able to find money for national defense and law enforcement.  (Unfortunately, however, due to recent Russian thuggishness, it appears that the generous U.S. outlays for defense have been necessary!)
• The beginning of the actual shrinkage of the resource base available for the global and national industrial economies.
• The beginning and later acceleration of changes wrought in work (both manufacturing and knowledge work) wrought by the introduction of automation, advances in telecommunication technology and artificial intelligence.

These factors include things that society can and should collectively decide to reverse, such as the choices and policies of rabid free-market late capitalism.  However, some of these factors should be regarded as inevitable factors that are leading to inexorable changes in the way we procure a living for ourselves and the landscape in which we earn that living.  Seeing such factors in this way should motivate each of us to make whatever personal and communal changes we need to make in order to survive the coming changes.  The technological changes are especially significant, since those who refuse to adjust themselves to prepare for these will wind up being steamrolled by the technological juggernaut.  Each of us may find that he or she needs to engage in a process of constant personal re-education and reinvention.

As for me, I have worked for a few engineering firms since that first firm I encountered after graduating from college.  Some of their offices have gone out of business due to the flat-footedness of managers who were not able to make the mental adjustment to rapidly changing markets and circumstances.  Some of these firms continue to do well to the present day, although their employees must pay certain costs in terms of extensive travel and sometimes long hours.  The challenge for employees is to find an occupational path which provides economic security without working a person to death or imposing unacceptable costs in other parts of the person's life such as his or her family life.  In a future post I will argue that the Great Resignation has provided a temporary boost to workers seeking to navigate such a path.

The West Must Defeat Russia

Please note the title of this post.  Note that it is not in the passive voice, but the active voice.  Russia has launched repeated all-out assaults in an attempt to break Ukrainian defenses.  The latest assault is against the Ukrainian town of Soledar.  The Ukrainians have repeatedly proven time and time again that they are willing to fight with valor and determination against thuggish Russian aggression.  However, the West has repeatedly been somewhat timorous and restrained in supplying weapons to Ukraine in order that Ukraine might drive Russian thug invaders from its territory.  So the world has had to witness repeated cliffhangers in the story of Ukraine's fight to liberate itself.

This has got to stop.  I cannot believe that we in the West have allowed Russia's dangerous aggression to go on for so long!  The West must have the courage to do whatever it takes to swiftly destroy Russia's military power.  Those in the West who are afraid of what Russia might do if it is defied and confronted should rather consider what Russia will certainly do if it is allowed to win.  Narcissists, bullies and thugs always escalate when they are not soundly and effectively stopped at the first sign of aggression.  Appeasement never works.  We must ask ourselves whether the cowards among us are paving the way for a world in which we allow ourselves to be trashed by Russia.  Russia must be stopped dead in its tracks.  The West must at the very least send to Ukraine whaever weaponry it takes for Ukraine to drive Russian thugs out of its territory and keep them out.  Please write your Congressional representative or senator and write the President also to ask that the United States send whatever weaponry Ukraine needs - including both long-range missiles and heavy tanks - and that this military aid be sent swiftly.  

The Advance of Decompensation

A quick post tonight: there are two things worth mentioning.  First, Russian mercenaries claim to have captured the Ukrainian town of Soledar.  Yet these claims have turned out to be so far from reality that even the Kremlin has denied them.  Putin is perhaps discovering the weakness of relying on mercenaries to win an unrighteous war.  Russia is looking increasingly ill.

Second, the Republican members of the Missouri legislature have introduced legislation requiring women who attend legislative sessions to wear clothing that covers their arms.  These are the same Republicans who threw a wobbly when state health officials tried to impose mask mandates to prevent the spread of COVID-19.  These are the same stupid people who applauded the stupid white males armed with assault rifles who stormed state houses in Midwest states with Democratic governors when those governors issued public health decrees that sought to keep these doofuses from getting sick and dying.  Evidently COVID was not as much of an existential threat as women with bare arms.

Both Putin, Russia, and the U.S. Republican Party are examples of people who are at war with reality.  Unfortunately for them, it's a war they're losing.

Precarity - An Introduction

Certain events from the past several weeks have provoked me to think about a topic which I have not studied in depth up to this time.  Those events are largely focused on the collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble last year and the corresponding destruction of the "investments" many poorer people made in "crypto" in order to increase their wealth.  (See "FTX Crypto Crash Threatens Life Savings of Working People", Truthout, November 2022, and "The Cryptocurrency Crash Is Replaying 2008 as Absurdly as Possible", Foreign Policy, May 2022.)  The collapse of economic bubbles in capitalist societies is a worthy topic of consideration in its own right  But my interest now lies in the motives and vulnerabilities of the ordinary people who were led to invest in "crypto" in the first place.  Their choice to invest was one of several coping mechanisms which they employed in order to try to deal with their social and economic situation.  That situation can be described by a single word: precarity.

Precarity is defined by the Cambridge Dictionary as "the state of being uncertain or likely to get worse," and, "a situation in which someone's job or career is always in danger of being lost."  The Journal of Cultural Anthropology describes precarity as ". . . an emerging abandonment that pushes us away from a livable life . . . [It is] the politically induced condition in which certain populations suffer from failing social and economic networks . . . becoming differentially exposed to injury, violence, and death."  The University of Georgia has an article on its "Neoliberalism Guide for Educators" webpage which describes precarity in concrete human terms, starting with the questions "Have you ever or do you currently live paycheck to paycheck?  Do you work 40 hours a week or more and still can't afford rent?"  We who live in the United States may be tempted to look on precarity solely in its American-style manifestations of inequality such as racism and the effects of tycoon capitalism, neoliberalism, privatization, and the destruction of social safety nets.  But precarity is a global phenomenon which can be seen even in ethnically homogeneous societies, as described by Hao Jingfang's "near science fiction" novelette titled, Folding Beijing.  (You can listen to an audio recording of her story at StarShipSofa.)  Precarity naturally arises whenever the people at the top of a society concentrate nearly all of the wealth of that society in the hands of a chosen few, thus creating a massive underclass out of the many who are not of the chosen few.  Those many become the precariat.

It is quite natural to assume that the precariat consist primarily of those historically marginalized populations without access to higher education, whose historical economic and social standing has condemned them to a blue-collar or manual labor or McJob sort of existence.  But while this is true, it is also true than an increasing number of white-collar, college-educated workers have found themselves forced into the precariat due to the destruction of long-standing arrangements between corporate masters and skilled professional labor.  For a recent example of this, consider the large number of lawyers who were laid off in 2022.  This progression of precarity among white-collar workers has been taking place for at least three decades.  (Four decades actually, if one counts the day that former President Ronald Reagan fired all of the air traffic controllers who were part of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration staff.)

Precarity is quite naturally a highly uncomfortable way of life.  This discomfort - frequently amounting to great pain and distress - quite naturally provokes a search for coping mechanisms from the people who comprise the precariat.  The usual suspects among coping mechanisms include things like the abuse of alcohol, opioids, and other drugs, or drowning oneself in other passive entertainments.  But my focus is on those more active attempts to cope which members of the precariat employ in trying to transform their situation.  So I am planning to write a series of posts on precarity, on the precariat, and on the attempts by members of the precariat to transform their situation.  A tentative outline of that series is as follows:

1. The Precariat - An Overview (This has been partly covered in today's post.)
2. My own experience of precarity
• As a teen
• As a college student
• Surprising encounters in the white-collar world
3. Origins and Spread of the Precariat
• The Link Between the Origins of Precarity and the Rise of Neoliberal (that is, radical libertarian free-market) capitalism
4. The Composition and Location of the Precariat
• Its global nature
• Its local expressions
5. The Coping Mechanisms of the Precariat
• What Doesn't Work
• Unwise "Side Hustles"
• The False Promises of Bubbles
• The Role of the "Advice" (Motivational Speaking) Industry and "Influencer" Culture
• Political Dead-Ends
• What Does (or May) Work
6. The Precariat And the Great Resignation
7. Future Directions Of The Precariat
• As Passive Victims of Forces Outside Themselves
• As Active and Activized Agents Who Take Charge Of Their Own Future
• The Potential for Such Action
• The Possible Constraints Preventing Such Action
• The Precariat in "Babylon"

Each major heading in this list will be covered in a separate blog post.  Each major heading will also require some research in order to do it justice.  But fortunately, the extreme busyness which characterized my life during most of 2022 seems to be easing up.  (I have rediscovered the fact that sleeping, for instance, is delicious!  And I look forward to chillin' with my guitar in my backyard when the weather warms up . . . )  The time taken in researching each of these topics will be time well-spent, and hopefully it will prove useful to the readers of this blog, as I believe that an increasing number of us will be forced to deal with precarity (or even be swept involuntarily into the precariat) in the days to come.

Chastised By A Bursting Bubble

No, the burned hand teaches best.  After that,

advice about fire goes to the heart.

- J.R.R. Tolkien, The Lord of the Rings

Ours is an age in which there is frequently a great deal of confusion about what constitutes true wealth.  This is especially true in the United States, and has been historically true of this country for at least a century.  Therefore, when I learned about the recent collapse of much of the cryptocurrency "industry", I was not surprised.  A long time ago I started expecting something like this to happen.  (For more information on the collapse, see the Washington Post article "Crypto 'Winter' has come.  Will it become an ice age?" and the European Central Bank essay titled, Crypto dominos: the bursting crypto bubbles and the destiny of digital finance" also.) 

I was slow to hear about cryptocurrencies when they first made waves, and I never really developed any interest in them.  A big turnoff was that they seemed to me to be simply a vastly more complicated way of doing what regular money was supposed to do - namely to act as a medium of commercial exchange.  And the schemes for making money from investing in cryptocurrencies (or as those who were 'hip' and 'with it' called them, "crypto") seemed to me after a while to be more complicated than even fluid mechanics calculations like the Navier-Stokes equation.  I swiftly came to the following conclusions regarding crypto:

• It was a means of promising early "investors" the chance to get something for nothing.
• It therefore had no intrinsic value or essential use in the world.
• It was therefore the perfect material for blowing financial bubbles.
• One day the bubbles would pop.

The recent pop of these bubbles (along with the accompanying pictures of people being led away to jail) has confirmed all of my conclusions.  It has also confirmed my belief and assertion that we live in a moral universe, and that those who violate the moral standard of that universe sooner or later must face the outworkings of their own damnation.  You really do reap what you've sown.  This has been true of the crypto schemers who set up the schemes by which they sought to defraud others.  But it is also true of many of those who were defrauded, for they were hooked by the promise of easy money - that is, by the promise of obtaining something for nothing.  Had they themselves not been led astray by their own evil desire, they would not have fallen prey to those who were more clever in doing evil.  The fact that bubbles like these continue to be blown speaks volumes about our present society - both about its perpetrators and about its victims.  The fact that an entire industry has arisen out of the desire to use mathematics as a tool of swindling speaks volumes about our misplaced collective values.  Bubbles like crypto are an inescapable feature of a society whose economy is built on usury.

So for those of us who seek to build true and lasting wealth in the midst of uncertain times, what should be our strategy?  As I have said before on this blog, our strategy should consist of the following elements:

• Do not desire to get rich.
• Learn essential skills.  Or, to put it another way, learn to engage in beautifully good work to meet necessary needs, that you may not be unfruitful.
• Live simply.  Focus on the essentials.

Do these things and you will go a long way toward bubble-proofing yourself.  You will also save yourself from the ravages of late-stage capitalism.

The Forecaster's Eyeglasses

A major focus of this blog has been to try to guess the outlines of the future, and to outline possible strategies for preparing for that future.  People who try to guess the outlines of the future need a certain mindset if they intend to safely engage in the guessing game without making fools of themselves.  One essential characteristic of the required mindset is humility - the kind of humility which keeps the guessers from taking themselves and their guesses so seriously that they are unwilling to take on emerging information which may contradict the original guesses.  Another essential characteristic is curiosity - the kind of curiosity which dedicates itself to observing and tracking emerging trends.  Lastly, what is needed is precision - a rigorous logical precision in evaluating both one's guesses and one's observations, as well as logical rigor in evaluating whether one's observations confirm one's original guesses.  The scientific method is an example of this kind of rigorous precision.  

A large body of guesses about the future has to do with the effects of resource depletion and environmental degradation on modern industrial society.  As an example we can consider the many books written on the subject during the first decade of the 21st century.  Spokespersons such as Julian Darley, Richard Heinberg, James Howard Kunstler, Dmitry Orlov, Nicole Foss, and Raul Ilargi Meijer promoted the view that the world's supplies of petroleum were on the verge of entering a phase of declining output, and that this irreversible decline in output would trigger catastrophic changes in the world's industrial societies, or to put it more starkly, the sudden catastrophic collapse of industrial society.  Some of the predictions of these people seemed to leave the realm of fact-based analysis entirely and became instead the embodiment of the subconscious night terror of white Anglo-European society over the possible loss of their own dominance and control of the earth.

So how did the predictions of these people fare in the face of events?  The answer is decidedly mixed.  Many of these predictors were able to draw the correct linkage between the impending decline of global petroleum output and U.S. foreign policy under the presidency of George W. Bush.  And according to the analysis of the German Energy Watch Group, the world has indeed long since passed the peak of global conventional oil production.  However, the predictions of the "collapsitarians" failed to account for the technological innovations which allowed the petroleum industry to temporarily boost output of petroleum liquids by means of fracking, ultra-deep drilling, horizontal drilling and other unconventional means.  (Of course, the use of these techniques also led to widespread groundwater contamination as well.)  These predictions also failed to account for the innovations in solar pv cell production, electricity storage technology, and electric vehicle design which have occurred from 2010 onward.  (However, these predictors of collapse did manage to breathe new life into a genre of literature which had gone dormant after the threat of nuclear war seemed to recede from the 1980's onward - namely the genre of post-apocalyptic fiction!  Move over, John Wyndham, Brian Aldiss, Pat Frank, Stephen King, and Walter M. Miller - you've got new neighbors...)

In other words, while resource shortages have begun to appear, they have been partially mitigated by technological advances.  Thus, society in general has most definitely not collapsed.  Yet ordinary people - especially those who are not among the privileged - have found that the number of potential threats in their environment has multiplied.  We who are not among the world's privileged therefore must learn to navigate that threat environment.  This navigation will require us to identify both emergent trends and potential risks.  So I'd like to lay out a few of these trends and risks in the remaining space in this post.  Let's consider the following:

• Energy.  The global energy situation is a mixed bag at present.  As mentioned above, global oil production is definitely past peak right now, and I'd like to suggest that this includes not only conventional oil, but all petroleum liquids.  This is why oil prices had begun to rise in 2021 even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  What is more, global production of coal may already have peaked.  According to the Energy Watch Group, global production of uranium has also already peaked.  Therefore the outlook is not good for those societies and industries which rely primarily on fossil fuel.  However, the outlook for renewables - especially solar photovoltaics - is quite sunny.  (Pardon the pun.)  As mentioned previously on this blog, analyses conducted by the German Energy Watch Group show that the transformation of global industrial societies entirely to renewable energy conveyed by electricity is well within the capabilities of these societies.  That transformation was already in progress before the start of this year, and has only accelerated as nations have come to realize that they cannot allow themselves to become dependent on the resources of thug regimes with imperial ambitions such as Russia.

One wild card in the energy mix is the potential contribution from nuclear fusion energy.  Two weeks ago the United States achieved ignition for the first time in a laser-triggered inertial confinement fusion experiment.  What this means is that by using laser light to implode a fusion target, the experimenters were able to produce more energy than the lasers used to initiate the fusion reaction.  However, this does not mean that a practical commercial fusion reactor is just around the corner.  So far, most fusion experiments have focused on the deuterium-tritium reaction, which produces most of its energy in a form that is very hard to harness for electricity generation.  The reaction also produces a very high neutron flux, which tends to destroy reactor materials over time in addition to producing lots of radioactive waste.  The disadvantages of the deuterium-tritium reaction represent a serious engineering challenge.  It remains to be seen whether that challenge can be overcome.

• Material Resources. I don't have time today to do an exhaustive analysis of resource bottlenecks, but I can definitely say that shortages of key materials have begun to appear in a number of industries.  Taking the construction industry as an example, from 2020 onward there have been shortages of lumber and steel.  In addition, there have been increasing shortages and delays in obtaining finished construction assemblies such as electrical switchboards, switchgear and transformers.  The appearance of shortages need not be a catastrophic thing, but shortages will force the world's economies to shift to a more circular model.  This will force a shift in the ideologies of many right-leaning people in the United States, for instance.  The good news is that a number of heavy industrial corporations have begun to move toward embracing the circular economy.  However, the existence and increasing severity of material shortages may prove to be more of an economic constraint than the shortage of energy was supposed to be.

• Climate and Environment.  The events of the past three or four years have provided blatant proof of the accelerating pace of global warming and its resulting environmental degradation.  From the spectacular Russian wildfires (most of which were caused by humans) which took place every year during the last ten years to the massive wildfires and smoke events which occurred in the western United States in 2020 to the horrible extreme temperatures which were seen in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in 2021, we have begun to witness weather events which have not been seen on the earth for millions of years.  Moreover, recent studies show that the melting of the earth's permanent ice is happening as much as 100 times faster than scientific models have predicted.  Many have predicted that increasing alteration of the earth's climate will result in large-scale migration of "climate refugees" from more chaotic or inhospitable regions to more habitable regions of the earth.  The assumption has been that these refugees will be from among the world's poorest people.  But it seems to me - especially given the random distribution of extreme weather events over the last few years - that many of these refugees may come from the world's most affluent populations.  Think of rich retired snowbirds fleeing from Arizona or jet-setters fleeing coastal resort properties in Florida.  Perhaps the best prospects will belong to those people who are wise and savvy enough to make a habitable space wherever they may find themselves - even if it means making one's bed in Sheol.

• Social Justice and Human Rights.  It is in this area that the greatest threats have arisen over the last decade.  The poor and oppressed populations of the earth won a number of significant victories during the 20th century.  Those victories led to such things as the end of the British Empire, the liberation of formerly colonized nations in the Global South, and the establishment of polities of liberated people who were able to begin to build their own collective power in order to fulfill their own human potential.  A number of observers including both social scientists and science fiction writers predicted that this trend would only continue until the entire earth had become an egalitarian society in which each human being was valued equally and in which each human being could flourish.  However, such idealistic thinking failed to recognize the latent power and personality-disordered nature of the oppressors, nor did it take into account the fact that the oppressors began to organize themselves to take back their lost glory.  Thus many of us failed to notice the efforts - at first subtle, then more blatant - which began from 1980 onward in the United States to attempt to reverse all the civil rights gains achieved by the nonwhite in the United States from 1865 onward.  We failed to recognize the emergence of revanchists both domestically and globally.

Now we stand at a crossroads - especially those of us who are people of color in the United States.  Our strategy to date for dealing with the re-emergent threats we face has been inadequate, to say the least.  That strategy has consisted of joining ourselves to a "progressive" agenda which does not place our unique concerns first and foremost, because it was not set by us.  Those who push this agenda on us have instructed us to engage in a "strategy" which largely consists of begging the oppressor to be nice.  This hasn't worked.  We have allowed our struggle to be hijacked by people whose priorities are not our priorities.  And we who are people of color in the United States have allowed ourselves to be turned into the foot soldiers of someone else's agenda, in the hopes that we might be able to receive some of the crumbs which fall from the table of that someone else when they have accomplished their agenda.

We need to start constructing our own agenda.  That agenda must start with us coming together to create our own structures of self-reliance just as Gandhi did in India at the beginning of his struggle against British imperialism.  This will involve struggle and hard work.  We need to stop being afraid of struggle and hard work.  To quote from a certain book on strategic nonviolent resistance, we need to realize that "the guilt of falling into the predatory hands of [oppressors] lay in the oppressed society and, thus, the solution and liberation need to come from that society transformed through its work, education, and civility."  Or, to put it another way, if I get out of bed and go into the bathroom to brush my teeth and I find a wolf there, it is 100 percent the wolf's fault if I get eaten by the wolf, since most reasonable people would never have any reason to expect a wolf in their houses.  (That nasty wolf must have sneaked in!)  But if I live in a place where wolves are commonplace and are very vicious, and I know this to be true, and yet I take no precautions when I leave my house, it is still 100 percent the wolf's fault if I get eaten, because the wolf is an evil, predatory beast whose evil nature moved him to start chewing on me.  But in this case, it is also 100 percent my fault, because I knew that there were wolves near my house, and I knew what sort of creatures wolves are, and yet I did nothing to protect myself.  Chew on that for a while.

Note that this list is not exhaustive.  In particular, I ran out of time to discuss the emergence of potential pandemic threats and the threats to public health which have resulted from the spread of disinformation and denialism by the Global Far Right.  Nor did I discuss the geopolitical threat posed by national revanchism, although this naturally follows from a consideration of threats to human rights and social justice.  While Russia is a blatant example of a revanchist threat, it is by no means the only example.  And there is the question of how the emergence of artificial machine intelligence will evolve and how much of an impact it will make on our daily lives.   But I must leave these considerations for another day.

A Story That Illustrates: The Sea Goddess' Bloom

This weekend is once again one of those weekends in which I have very little time for anything except catching up on work.  So today's post will be extra short.  However, I'd like to recommend a story which was published recently in an online magazine/podcast combination known as Escape Pod.  The name of the story is "The Sea Goddess' Bloom" and it was written by Uchechukwu Nwaka, a Ph.D lecturer at the Alvan Ikoku Federal College of Education in Nigeria.  To me, the story and character arcs are a beautiful illustration of a point I made in a post on this blog titled, "How The Straight Subverts The Crooked."

The N-Soul Problem

In a couple of recent posts I discussed the phenomenon of megaprojects - that is, those large-scale, costly projects which are undertaken by a society when all of its members become united in the pursuit of  particular goals which the megaprojects are designed to meet.  The pursuit of the goal embodied by the megaproject alters the lives of everyone in the society undertaking the project, because it requires each member of the society to make a sacrifice in order to contribute toward the goal.  Perhaps the earliest historical example of a megaproject is the Tower of Babel mentioned in Genesis 11:1-9.  More recent examples of megaprojects include the war economies which were arranged by the various governments which fought World War Two, as well as the rebuilding of some of those economies which occurred in the aftermath of that war.  The U.S. space program became something of a megaproject in the 1960's when President Kennedy set the goal of landing an American on the moon before the end of the decade.  A much more prosaic example of a megaproject is the construction of the U.S. interstate highway system under President Eisenhower during the 1950's.

I'd like to suggest that megaprojects play a key role in the wholesale transformation and advance of a society.  I'd also like to suggest that there are three important conditions which must be fulfilled in order for a megaproject to realize its full transformative potential:

1. The leaders of a society must be wise in their choice of the goal which a megaproject is supposed to meet;
2. The leaders must present the vision and goal of the megaproject in a way that unites the souls of the members of society behind that goal;
3. And, the leaders must be wise in organizing the contributions of each member of the society in fulfilling that goal.

It is at points 2 and 3 that trouble can come.  Point 1 is also a place of potential trouble - if the leaders of a society choose an unrighteous goal, eventually their project will fail, as the builders of Babel found out.  But I'd like to focus especially on the pitfalls contained in points 2 and 3.  The success of point 2 depends not only on the wisdom and persuasiveness of the leaders of a society, but also on all the members of the society itself.  For instance, if the members of a society are generally unselfish and willing to make contributions toward a greater good, they can be more easily united behind a good goal.  If, however, the members of a society are rabidly selfish and individualistic, then it becomes much harder for any leader to unite them behind the sort of transformative goal that requires an unselfish contribution from each member.  The success or failure of point 3 depends on the humility (or lack thereof) of the leaders of the society.  The leaders will have the greatest chance of success if they recognize that the people from whom they are asking contributions bring not only their material wealth and the strength of their bodies, but also their minds (or souls) - that is, their unique ideas and perspectives.  Those leaders who set a goal and then "hire" the members of their societies "from the shoulders down" as mere drones to fulfill the grand plan of the leaders may find their grand plan failing.

Now one way to destroy a society's ability to conceive and implement megaprojects is to destroy that society's ability to combine.  This is what happened at the Tower of Babel when God confused the languages of everyone on earth because their unified goal was evil.  But it is also possible for evil agents to confuse the ability of a society to undertake large-scale transformative projects of good.  How is this done?  Simply by teaching or persuading a majority of the members of the society to become selfish, materialistic, and individualistic.  This has been the trajectory of American society over the last four decades under the influence of right-wing American media.  It should be no surprise therefore that the ability of the U.S. to engage in transformative megaprojects has declined as well (at the same time that loneliness and alienation in American society has increased).  There is an urgent need for the kind of transformative megaprojects that can enable the United States to weather the 21st century challenges of declining resource availability, increasing environmental degradation, and a changing climate.  But rigid adherence to free-market ideology and excessive reliance on private-sector solutions is hindering the emergence of the needed megaprojects.  A case in point is the success with which the American Right attacked the Green New Deal.

On the other hand, there are the societies of China and Singapore, in which the coordination between the State and private industry is much tighter, and there is still a fair amount of collective spirit.  As a result, China has the most advanced urban infrastructure in the world, and leads the world in rapid transit technology including high-speed rail.  In fact, China is now a major exporter of high-speed rail technology.  Similarly, the Chinese higher education system is the result of intense, goal-oriented State strategic planning which has begun to produce universities which are among the most prestigious in the world.  (Consider Tsinghua University, for instance, which is among the top twenty universities worldwide according to one metric.)  This is occurring at a time in which many American universities are declining in world rankings due to a lack of public funding for basic research.  And the story of Singapore is no less impressive, as demonstrated by the article cited at the end of this post.  But a problem arises in more collectivist societies if the leaders of those societies become insecure and hence begin to assert an unhealthy level of control over the initiative of their private members.  Hence, Chinese President Xi Jinping's actions and policies have begun to threaten the megaproject of Chinese transformation begun by Deng Xiaoping.

So we have two ends of a continuum: on the one hand, rampant, laissez-faire individualism which prevents people from combining in any way to achieve goals larger than the individual, and on the other hand, a central control which quashes individual initiative and stifles diverse insights.  The United States lies on one end of this continuum and is declining as a result.  China under Xi Jinping has begun to move toward the other end of the continuum and has begun to suffer as a result.  Physicists and astronomers sometimes talk about the n-body problem - that is, the problem of trying to mathematically describe the motions of three or more bodies in orbit around a common center.  I'd like to suggest what I call the "n-soul problem" - that is, how to organize people into groups that most effectively undertake transformative projects for good.  Those who successfully solve this problem will do well.  

For further reading on megaprojects, see "Megaprojects for Megaregions: Global Cases and Takeaways" by John Landis and the U.S. Department of Transportation.

The Activizing Literature of Jose Rizal

This is a "quickie" post.  Entrepreneurship is still keeping me very busy, as demonstrated by the fact that I worked straight through last week's holidays.  However, I want to take a moment to mention the Filipino author Jose Rizal, who was a key figure in the birth of the Philippine independence movement against the Spanish empire in the latter part of the 19th century.  Two of his main contributions to that movement consisted of his novels Noli Me Tangere and El Filibusterismo.  It was the publication of these novels which led to his arrest and execution by the Spanish authorities in the Philippines.  The novels were also banned by the Spanish Philippine provincial government.  

I recently took a listen to an audiobook recording of both novels.  As I have mentioned before, audiobooks are a good way to consume literature while washing dishes, doing yardwork, brushing teeth, etc.  And if you want to do the same with these novels, you can find a free recorded reading of both novels at the website of a woman named Availle.  (No, Google, I did not mean "available," I meant "Availle"!  Fix your broken search algorithm...)  Some thoughts:

• Jose Rizal has an engaging literary style!  I like how he is able to weave humor into stories about very heavy times in the history of an oppressed people.  (For instance, you will meet a woman who torments her husband by yanking out his false teeth from time to time...)
• I like how he refutes the argument put by oppressors to their victims that the oppression is somehow necessary.
• I like how he illustrates the contradictions that arise in the societies of the dominated.
• I like the fact that his stories have a strong moral point.  His second novel illustrates especially well the main point I made in a post written last year for this blog.

Rizal is one of those authors who have lately illustrated to me the power of literature to make moral points, the power which good literature has to disturb the unjust peace of dominators by illustrating the contradictions in that peace.  This power is best exercised by those who have the talent and ability to skillfully use the tools of good literature in order to make a point with imagination, from unexpected and original perspectives, without falling into banality or dry preachiness.  Other examples of this ability can be seen in the magical realism of authors such as Gabriel Garcia Marquez and the "science fiction realism" of the crop of new post-90's Chinese writers such as Chen Qiufan or Hao Jingfang, as well as the social commentary of authors of long standing such as Han Song.  An example from the early 20th century in the United States who arouses my interest is Sinclair Lewis.  I am thinking that the next audiobook I listen to will be his novel Elmer Gantry.

In future posts, I might explore the subject of literature as an instrument of social change, and might also delve into some of the tools of transformative literature.  But if I do, I'll be sure to include a disclaimer that I am not a professional novelist!

Why Russian Power Must Be Destroyed

It's interesting (but hardly surprising) that some of the members of the incoming Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives are pushing for an end to U.S. aid to Ukraine as Ukraine fights to rid itself of Russian invaders.  What is a bit more disappointing is the presence of supposed voices on the American "left" who are clamoring for the same thing, and who are pleading for a "negotiated settlement" to the war in Ukraine.  

It is because of a failure on the part of decent people in the United States to organize that the Republicans won a majority of House seats in the 2022 elections.  It is because of a failure on the part of decent people in the U.S. that the voices clamoring for "negotiations" and an end to U.S. aid to Ukraine have gained any kind of traction.  But I'd like to remind the owners of these voices of a few things.  First, we can see Russia's invasion of Ukraine as part of a continuum of Russian actions designed to establish a global Russian empire.  Second, although Russia has set itself up as a leader of the Global Far Right and a champion of white supremacy, the invasion of Ukraine should teach those mouthpieces for "negotiation" and isolationism in the West that Russia does not even view all white people as equal.  By making a deal with the devil, these people may find themselves in the shocking position of being low rungs on a ladder whose rungs are stepped on and kicked by Russian feet.  When the deal with the devil sours, and these people feel the need to resist, they may find themselves targeted for mass murder in the same way that Russia is trying to commit genocide in Ukraine.

We must not forget that Russia has had global imperial ambitions for a very long time, and has pressed these ambitions aggressively even though Russia has nothing of substance to offer the rest of the world.  Consider the murderous narcissism of Vladimir Putin and of Aleksandr Dugin, and ask yourselves whether you want to be made into the rungs of their hierarchy.  If being even a Russian citizen is such a painful thing, how much worse would it be to be turned into a Russian subject?  Those who attempt to make deals with the devil eventually become the victims of the devil.

Russia must be driven completely out of Ukraine.  That means that Putin must be denied the chance to turn the war in Ukraine into a waiting game for Russia.  And Russian nationalists must be driven completely from power.  As long as Russia remains unrepentant, Russian power must be destroyed.